Weekly News Recap 4 – 8 November 2024

News for 4 November 2024

Gold: Investors Reduce Risk at the End of Last Week

At the end of last week, gold prices declined to close at $2,736 per ounce due to a significant drop in the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) number for October, which came in at only 12,000 jobs. This led to concerns that the U.S. economy might be heading into a recession, prompting continued portfolio adjustments to reduce risk.

As a result, the potential for further upside in gold prices appears to be limited in the short-term outlook.

Non-Farm Payrolls for October Added Only 12,000 Jobs; Despite Hurricanes and Protests, Labor Market Remains Strong

The U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) for October showed an increase of only 12,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 113,000. Factors impacting job growth include hurricanes and protests in certain areas, which led to a noticeable slowdown in employment.

However, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, instilling confidence among investors that the U.S. labor market remains strong, despite the underwhelming job growth numbers. This also reflects the resilience of the labor market amidst the current economic challenges.

Berkshire Hathaway Continues to Sell Apple Inc. Shares in 3Q24

Berkshire Hathaway has continued to reduce its stake in Apple Inc. during the third quarter of 2024. According to Bloomberg, the company reduced its holdings in Apple by approximately 25%, following a nearly 50% reduction in the second quarter. This occurred despite Apple’s stock rising by 10.6% in Q3, which ended on September 30.

As a result of these sales, Berkshire Hathaway’s value of Apple shares has dropped to $69.9 billion, down from $174.3 billion at the end of 2023, marking a nearly 60% decrease. However, Warren Buffett has not publicly commented on Apple since the annual shareholder meeting.

Additionally, on September 10, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that Apple must pay €13 billion ($14.4 billion) in back taxes to the Irish government after it was found that Apple had received illegal tax benefits from Ireland for 20 years.

Dow Jones to Replace Intel with NVIDIA, Boosting Positive Outlook but Increasing Volatility

The Dow Jones index (US30) is set to undergo a composition change, with Intel being removed from the calculation and replaced by NVIDIA starting November 8, 2024. This change is seen as positive for the index, as NVIDIA has a market capitalization of $3.32 trillion, second only to Apple Inc. at $3.39 trillion.

Since the Dow Jones is a price-weighted index, larger stocks like NVIDIA will have a more significant impact on the index’s movements. However, this change may also increase volatility, as the movement of large-cap stocks can significantly affect the index.

News for 5 November 2024

Gold Declines Amid Uncertainty Ahead of U.S. Election Results

On November 4, gold prices softened, closing at $2,736/oz, as the market lacked new supportive factors. Investors began gradually reducing risk exposure, leading to continued pressure on gold prices.

Looking ahead, on November 5 at 22:00 (EST), the U.S. ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release, with expectations set at 53.8. If the actual figure exceeds the forecast, it could put additional pressure on gold prices.

Analysts anticipate heightened volatility for gold prices during the election period, as uncertainty looms over the U.S. political landscape.

“Trump Trade” Slows as Polls Show Harris Leading in Iowa

“Trump Trade” has begun to lose momentum following the latest polls indicating that Kamala Harris is leading in the state of Iowa. This development has led to a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar, causing U.S. Treasury yields to decline as well, while dragging down Bitcoin prices.

Additionally, the Iowa poll results have impacted the betting markets, with several platforms increasing the odds of Harris defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. This shift has raised concerns about future economic policies, particularly if there is a change in leadership.

Apple Offers $10 Million Investment in Hopes of Approval to Sell iPhone 16 in Indonesia

Apple Inc. has proposed a nearly $10 million investment plan to expand its production in Indonesia, aiming to lift the ban on the sale of its latest iPhone 16 in the local market. Apple submitted this proposal to Indonesia’s Ministry of Industry after authorities last month prohibited the sale of the iPhone 16 due to Apple’s failure to comply with regulations requiring smartphones and tablets sold in the country to use at least 40% locally sourced components.

Sources indicate that the Ministry of Industry is currently reviewing Apple’s proposal, which is not yet considered final and may undergo revisions. A decision on the matter is expected soon, as the ministry considers whether to approve the iPhone 16 to enter the Indonesian market.

News for 6 November 2024

Gold Softens as Trump Gains Lead in Election Polls

On November 5, gold prices rose to close at $2,744/oz, supported by a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, which fell from 103.91 to 103.45. This decline prompted investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold.

However, on November 6, markets are closely monitoring the vote count for the U.S. presidential election, where Donald Trump currently holds a slight lead.

Should Trump secure a victory and reintroduce foreign policies that could pressure international counterparts, the U.S. Dollar Index may rebound, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices.

Trump Media Stock Faces High Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of the Truth Social platform, experienced significant volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election results. The stock surged as much as 18.64% during the session before reversing sharply, falling by 8.42%, and ultimately closing with a modest decline of 1.16%.

The initial rally reflected investor confidence in the election outcome. However, the subsequent swings underscore market concerns and uncertainty about the political landscape’s future direction, highlighting the sensitive response to election-related developments.

Global Markets Focus on Fed Meeting: Rate Cut of 0.25% Expected

Investors worldwide are closely watching the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, with an announcement scheduled for Thursday, November 7th. The market has almost fully priced in a 0.25% rate cut, which would bring the benchmark interest rate down to a range of 4.50-4.75%. However, the outlook for further rate cuts remains uncertain as the U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience.

The Fed’s decision is anticipated to have a significant impact on global investment trends, with investors paying close attention to any additional signals regarding the long-term direction of monetary policy.

Trump Leads Harris by 99 Electoral Votes to 27 in Race to 270

Preliminary election results in the United States, after polling stations closed in several states, show that Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has received 99 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has received only 27.

In this election, the candidate who reaches 270 electoral votes first will be declared the winner. Both sides are still fiercely competing for the presidency.

Goldman Sachs Predicts a 3% Surge in S&P 500 if Trump Wins Election

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the S&P500 index on the New York Stock Exchange could rise by 3% if Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, wins the U.S. presidential election, and if the Republican Party gains control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The potential victory of Trump could boost investor confidence in the stock market, leading to an anticipated increase in the S&P500 index.

News for 7 November 2024

XAU/USD breaks key support level, signals a shift towards a downtrend

On November 6, gold prices weakened, closing at $2,659/oz due to Donald Trump’s election victory, which strengthened the dollar from 103.70 to 105.11, putting pressure on gold prices.

On November 7, at 19:00, investors are closely watching the Bank of England meeting, which is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%.

Trump Media and Tesla Stocks Surge Following Trump’s Victory

Following Donald Trump’s election victory, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the owner of the Truth Social platform, jumped 5.94%, while Tesla shares soared 14.75%. This surge is attributed to Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, who played a significant role in campaigning for Trump’s team, boosting Tesla’s stock with strong support from right-wing leadership.

Citi Warns Trump’s Victory Could Pressure Oil Prices Until Next Year

Citigroup predicts that Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency for a second term could pressure crude oil prices through 2025. They forecast Brent crude oil prices to average around $60 per barrel, primarily due to potential trade tariffs and an increase in oil supply that may result from Trump’s policies.

Biden Races to Aid Ukraine Before Term Ends, Fears Trump May Cut Support

Sources reveal that the White House is planning to send billions of dollars in security assistance to Ukraine before U.S. President Joe Biden’s term ends in January. This move aims to bolster support for the Ukrainian government ahead of Donald Trump’s expected inauguration as U.S. President on January 20.

News for 8 November 2024

Gold Rallies After Fed Rate Cut as Expected

On November 7, gold prices surged, closing at $2,706/oz following the Federal Reserve’s unanimous decision to cut short-term interest rates by 0.25% to the range of 4.50-4.75%, as anticipated. This rate cut led to a weakening of the U.S. Dollar Index from 105.15 to 104.36, which in turn supported the rise in gold prices.

However, despite this rebound, gold’s upward momentum remains limited as the medium-term outlook for the dollar suggests potential strengthening.

Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 0.25% to 4.50-4.75% as Expected

The Federal Reserve’s committee unanimously decided to reduce short-term interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4.50-4.75% in its meeting on November 7. This marks the second rate cut of the year, following a 0.50% reduction in September, which lowered the rate to 4.75-5.00%.