Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 6 – 10 January 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the second week of January, from 6 – 10 January 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• German Retail Sales Report (6 January): If the data comes out better than expected, it could support the euro as it reflects the strength of consumer activity in Germany.
• Eurozone Final Services PMI (6 January): Improved data could indicate a recovery in the Eurozone economy, which would help support the euro.
• German Factory Orders Data (7 January): Strong data could support the euro, reflecting the stability of the manufacturing sector.
• Eurozone GDP Q4 2024 (8 January): If the data points to slower growth, the euro may weaken against the dollar.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (7 January): If the data is higher than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar and pressure the EUR/USD pair.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (8 January): If there are signs indicating that the Fed may raise interest rates further, the U.S. dollar could strengthen and put pressure on the euro.
• U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) (9 January): If the data is higher than expected, it could support the expectation that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy, which would strengthen the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (9 January): If the data is lower than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar, but if the numbers are higher than expected, it could add pressure on the dollar.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (10 January): This is a key indicator. If the data comes out better than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar and pressure the euro. However, if it is lower than expected, the U.S. dollar may weaken.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (10 January): If the unemployment rate decreases, it could boost confidence in the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price has broken through the key support level at 1.03360, confirming a clear downtrend. Currently, the price is experiencing a slight retracement.

It is recommended that we wait for a Sell opportunity around the new resistance at 1.03360, which is the level at which the price previously broke down. If there is a clear Price Action signal on the Sell side, you can enter a position to target a long-term downward move.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Final Services PMI (6 January): If the data comes out higher than expected, it could support the British pound as it reflects a recovery in the services sector, which is a key driver of the U.K. economy.
• U.K. Halifax House Price Index (8 January): Strong data could indicate strength in the U.K. housing market, which would help support the British pound.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Factory Orders (7 January): If the data comes in strong, it could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
• U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (7 January): If the data exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the British pound.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (8 January): If there are signals that the Fed may raise interest rates further, the U.S. dollar could strengthen and put pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (9 January): If the numbers come in lower than expected, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar, while higher-than-expected numbers could increase pressure on the dollar.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (10 January): Strong data could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the GBP/USD pair. However, weaker-than-expected data may provide support for the British pound.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (10 January): A decrease in the unemployment rate could reflect a recovery in the U.S. labor market, which would support the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has moved downward and broken through the support level. The previous support level at 1.24800 can now be used as a resistance zone.

Currently, the price is being consolidated, and the resistance is being tested. If there is a clear Price Action signal on the Sell side, you can enter a position to target further downward movement.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Eurozone & U.S. Final Services PMI (6 January): A stronger-than-expected figure in the Eurozone could reduce the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while strong data from the U.S. could support the dollar and pressure gold prices.
• German Factory Orders (7 January): A strong figure may reflect confidence in Europe’s economy and reduce demand for gold.
• U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (7 January): A higher-than-expected reading may pressurize gold prices as the dollar strengthens.
• Eurozone GDP Q4 2024 (8 January): Weaker-than-expected growth in the Eurozone could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (8 January): If the Fed signals further tightening of monetary policy, it could support the dollar and pressure gold prices.
• U.S. PPI (9 January): A higher-than-expected figure could fuel expectations that the Fed will maintain a strict monetary policy, negatively impacting gold prices.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (9 January): Lower-than-expected numbers could support the dollar, while higher-than-expected numbers could boost gold prices.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (10 January): A stronger-than-expected number could lead to a stronger dollar and pressure gold prices. Conversely, weaker data could lead to a rise in gold prices.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (10 January): A decrease in the unemployment rate could put downward pressure on gold prices due to increased confidence in the dollar.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) has shown an upward movement since the beginning of the new year, and it is expected to move in a Sideway Up pattern within the price range of 2575-2670. Trading opportunities exist on both the Buy and Sell sides, as the market trend is not yet clearly defined in any direction.

In smaller timeframes, a key support zone at 2630 is observed. If price action signals a Buy and the price bounces upward from this level, it may be a good opportunity to enter a Buy position, aiming for a test of the resistance levels at 2660-2670.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.