Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 26 – 30 August 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the fifth week of August, from 26 – 30 August 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• German Ifo Business Climate Index (August 26): This indicator reflects business confidence in Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone. If the figures come in lower than expected, it may signal a weakening economic environment and pressure the euro.
• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (August 30): The Consumer Price Index provides insights into inflation trends. If inflation rises, the European Central Bank (ECB) may maintain or raise interest rates, supporting the euro. However, if inflation falls, the ECB may adopt a more accommodative stance, potentially weakening the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Q2 GDP Announcement (August 28): The announcement of Q2 GDP figures will be highly significant. If the growth rate exceeds expectations, it could bolster the U.S. dollar, making it more attractive than the euro.
• U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (August 29): As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, this index is crucial for close monitoring. If inflation remains high, it could strengthen expectations of further tightening by the Fed, which would support the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD is in a clear uptrend, with the next target aiming to test the resistance zone on the weekly timeframe at 1.27800-1.30000. 

You might consider entering a buy position during pullbacks on smaller timeframes, using the 1.11000 support zone as a stop loss. Alternatively, you could wait for the price to test this support zone again and enter a buy position if the price holds above it.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• GfK Consumer Confidence Index (August 29): This indicator reflects consumer confidence in the UK. If the figures come in better than expected, it could indicate strong consumption and economic recovery, which would support the pound.
• UK Net Lending to Individuals Report (August 30): This data shows bank lending in the UK, serving as an indicator of the economic situation. If lending increases, it could be a positive sign for the economy and support the pound.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Q2 GDP Announcement (August 28): The announcement of Q2 GDP figures will be highly significant. If the growth rate exceeds expectations, it could bolster the U.S. dollar, making it more attractive than the pound.
• U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (August 29): As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, this index is crucial for close monitoring. If inflation remains high, it could strengthen expectations of further tightening by the Fed, which would support the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD is in a clear uptrend, similar to EURUSD. Technical trade is on the buy side, using the support zone at 1.30800. 

You might wait for the price to test this zone before entering a buy position if you’re not in a hurry.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Q2 GDP Announcement (August 28): Stronger-than-expected GDP figures could indicate a robust recovery in the U.S. economy, which might pressure gold prices. Investors could shift towards riskier assets like stocks, reducing their gold holdings.
• U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (August 29): As the key inflation gauge used by the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy decisions, a higher reading could lead to expectations of further interest rate hikes. This would strengthen the U.S. dollar and likely put downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

The Price movement aims to retest the all-time high (ATH) with resistance at 2530. The price is currently supported by a steeper blue trend line. Watching for a potential pullback to test a less steep yellow trend line.

You might enter a buy order If the price reaches that zone and shows a buy price action (PA). Additionally, you’re keeping an eye on the key support zone at 2470; if the price tests and holds this level, you would consider buying as well.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.