Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 22 – 26 July 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the fourth week of July, from July 22-26, 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Economic Confidence Index: Monitor surveys or reports related to economic confidence, such as the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator or the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator. These can provide insights into the confidence levels of businesses and consumers.
• Inflation Data: Keep track of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. If inflation rises, the European Central Bank (ECB) may alter its monetary policy direction.
• Retail Sales: Monitor retail sales figures for the Eurozone, as they indicate consumer spending trends crucial for economic growth.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Federal Reserve Statements: Monitor speeches or statements from Federal Reserve officials, as they may provide clues about future interest rate hikes or monetary policy changes.
• Economic Indicators: Key reports to follow include the GDP growth rate, employment data, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the United States. These will impact market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

The price has tested the resistance level at 1.09490 as per the previous plan and has since pulled back. Wait for the price to test the Order Block zone around the 1.08324 level. Then, observe the price action to confirm whether to go Buy or Sell and trade accordingly.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• GDP Growth Data: The growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicates the overall economic condition of the UK. Higher growth may lead to an appreciation of the GBP.
• Inflation Data: Monitor the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures. Higher inflation may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to consider increasing interest rates.
• Employment Data: Employment figures and the unemployment rate provide insights into the labor market conditions. Improvements in the labor market can boost economic confidence and lead to a stronger GBP.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Federal Reserve Statements: Monitor speeches or statements from Federal Reserve officials, as these may provide clues about future interest rate hikes or changes in monetary policy.
• Economic Indicators: Key reports to watch include the GDP growth rate, employment data, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States. These will influence market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

The price tested the previous resistance level at 1.30097 but failed to break through, resulting in a current decline. It is advisable to wait for the price to test the support zone between 1.28234 and 1.27759. Observe the price action to determine whether to confirm a Buy or Sell position and trade accordingly. Alternatively, those willing to take a high-risk setup can enter a Sell position at current levels and wait for the price to test the support zone.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• Inflation Data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures impact expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Higher inflation may lead the Fed to consider increasing interest rates, which can strengthen the USD and lower gold prices.
• Employment Data: Employment figures and the unemployment rate indicate the state of the U.S. economy. Strong employment data can raise expectations for an interest rate hike by the Fed, potentially resulting in lower gold prices.
• GDP Growth Data: The growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the U.S. can affect gold prices. If GDP growth is strong, the market may anticipate tighter monetary policy from the Fed, which can lead to a decrease in gold prices.

Technical Analysis

The price has risen to test a major resistance zone and liquidity and has subsequently dropped sharply as planned. Currently, the price has confirmed closing below the Fibo 0.618 level. Focus on the Fibo 0.50 support zone around 2385-2390. If the price fails to hold at this level, it may lead to a short-term downward adjustment. Additionally, be cautious of any news that could impact gold prices this week. It is recommended to look for opportunities to Sell in line with the current short-term downtrend, as indicated by last Friday’s continuous sell-off.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.