Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 2 – 6 December 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the first week of December, from 2 – 6 November 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI (December 2): This indicator reflects the level of economic activity in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. If the PMI exceeds expectations, it could have a positive impact on the euro. Conversely, if it falls short of expectations, it may put downward pressure on the euro.
• Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (December 3): This index measures inflation in the production sector of the Eurozone. A higher-than-expected PPI could support the euro, strengthening its value. However, a lower-than-expected figure might lead to euro depreciation.
• Eurozone Final Services PMI (December 4): This index indicates the level of economic activity in the services sector, a key component of the Eurozone economy. Better-than-expected results could contribute to a stronger euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (December 2): This index reflects activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. If the PMI comes in higher than expected, it may strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on the euro.
• U.S. Factory Orders (December 3): This index measures changes in factory orders in the U.S. A higher-than-expected figure could support the U.S. dollar, adding pressure on the euro to weaken.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (December 4): This index has a direct impact on the U.S. dollar. If the PMI exceeds expectations, the dollar may strengthen, creating downward pressure on the euro.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (December 5): This indicator reflects the state of the U.S. labor market. A better-than-expected report on jobless claims could bolster the U.S. dollar and weigh on the euro.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (December 6): As one of the most significant economic indicators of the week, a stronger-than-expected NFP report could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the euro. However, if the report falls short of expectations, the euro could gain momentum.
• Unemployment Rate (December 6): This figure reflects the employment situation in the U.S. If the unemployment rate decreases more than anticipated, it could support the dollar and pressure the euro. Conversely, a higher-than-expected unemployment rate may provide support for the euro instead.

Technical Analysis

The current price is testing a critical resistance zone around 1.06000. If it fails to break above this level, there is a potential for the price to continue declining. It is advisable to look for Sell opportunities in this resistance zone to profit from the expected downward movement, as the overall trend still shows no clear signs of transitioning into an uptrend.

Closely monitor price action within the resistance zone and set an appropriate Stop Loss to manage risks in case the price breaks above the resistance level.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Final Manufacturing PMI (December 2): This indicator reflects economic activity in the U.K. manufacturing sector. If the PMI exceeds expectations, it could positively impact the pound. Conversely, if it falls short of expectations, it may pressure the pound to weaken.
• U.K. Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) (December 3): An increase in housing prices could indicate economic strength and support the pound’s appreciation.
• U.K. Final Services PMI (December 4): As the services sector constitutes a significant portion of the U.K. economy, a better-than-expected PMI could boost the pound’s strength.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (December 2): This index reflects activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. If the PMI exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen, putting downward pressure on the pound.
• U.S. Factory Orders (December 3): If factory orders increase more than anticipated, it could boost the U.S. dollar and create pressure on the pound.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (December 4): The services sector plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy. A better-than-expected PMI could strengthen the U.S. dollar and negatively affect the pound.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (December 5): This indicator reflects the health of the U.S. labor market. If initial jobless claims come in lower than expected, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the pound.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (December 6): This important report shows changes in the U.S. labor market. A higher-than-expected employment number could drive the U.S. dollar higher and pressure the pound. However, if the figure is lower than expected, the pound may receive support.
• Unemployment Rate (December 6): If the unemployment rate decreases more than expected, the U.S. dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on the pound. On the other hand, if the unemployment rate increases, it could benefit the pound.

Technical Analysis

The price has confirmed a close above the first resistance level at 1.27200, indicating a potential move toward testing the next resistance at 1.28200.

However, it’s important to closely monitor key news this week, especially the U.S. NFP report, which could influence the price direction. It is recommended to look for Sell opportunities if the price fails to sustain above the 1.28000 level.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (December 2): This indicator reflects economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. If the data comes in higher than expected, the U.S. dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a lower-than-expected reading could result in gold prices rising.
• Eurozone PPI (December 3): If inflation in the Eurozone increases, it may boost demand for gold as an inflation hedge. A higher-than-expected figure could push gold prices up.
• U.S. Factory Orders (December 3): An increase in factory orders may indicate U.S. economic strength, which would pressure gold prices. However, if the data comes in lower than expected, gold may receive support.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (December 4): If the data exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, a lower-than-expected result could drive gold prices higher.
• Statements from Federal Reserve Officials (December 4): If Fed officials signal a hawkish monetary policy, the U.S. dollar may strengthen, leading to a decline in gold prices. Conversely, a dovish signal could support gold prices.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (December 5): If jobless claims are lower than expected, it would signal a strong labor market, supporting the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold. A worse-than-expected reading could help push gold prices higher.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (December 6): Higher-than-expected job gains could strengthen the U.S. dollar and press down on gold prices. If the numbers are lower than expected, gold prices might rise.
• Unemployment Rate (December 6): A lower-than-expected unemployment rate would likely lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, putting pressure on gold. Conversely, a higher-than-expected rate could provide support for gold.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices are trying to rise but are facing resistance at 2665. A potential Sell opportunity may arise to test the support at 2605-2600. If the price breaks below this level, it could test the next support at 2540.

However, caution is advised on Friday due to the NFP announcement, which could lead to significant price movement.

It is recommended to trade short-term and close positions within the day (Day Trade) to avoid risk from volatility. Long-term positions are not advised at this time as the price remains at risk of reversing in either direction.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.