Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 12 – 16 August 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the third week of August, from 12 – 16 August 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• GDP Growth Rate: The GDP growth rate of the Eurozone is crucial in indicating economic health. If the upcoming or revised GDP figures show better growth than anticipated, it may strengthen the euro.
• Inflation (CPI): The upcoming CPI data is significant. If inflation rises, it might lead the ECB to consider tightening monetary policy, which could positively affect the euro.
• Industrial Production and Retail Sales: Data releases in these areas will indicate overall economic activity in the Eurozone. If the figures are positive, it could support the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Inflation (CPI and PPI): U.S. inflation figures will be closely watched. If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue its aggressive stance, which could support the U.S. dollar.
• Retail Sales: The upcoming retail sales data will provide insights into consumer spending, a key component of U.S. economic growth.
• Employment Data: Updates on employment figures, such as jobless claims, could influence the Fed’s stance on monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

Last week was a bearish week, as prices declined throughout the week. It is anticipated that prices might further decline to test the Fibo 0.618-0.5 (1.08790-1.08380). It is recommended to monitor the price as it tests this interesting zone, and then observe the price action to consider trading on the buy side potentially.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• GDP Growth Rate: The GDP growth rate of the UK will be a key factor. If the upcoming GDP figures show higher growth than anticipated, it could positively impact the British pound.
• Inflation (CPI): UK CPI data will be extremely important. If inflation rises, it might lead the Bank of England (BoE) to consider tightening monetary policy, which could strengthen the pound.
• Employment Figures: Employment data, such as unemployment rates and changes in employment, will provide insights into the UK labor market and will influence the BoE’s policy decisions.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Inflation (CPI and PPI): U.S. inflation figures will be closely watched. If inflation remains high, it may lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its aggressive stance, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar.
• Retail Sales: U.S. retail sales data will be an indicator of consumer spending, a key component of U.S. economic growth. If the figures are positive, it could support the U.S. dollar.
• Employment Data: U.S. employment figures, such as jobless claims, are also important. If the numbers are favorable, it could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price is currently in a downtrend, as it has not been able to hold above Fibo 0.5 and continues to decline. Monitor the price as it rises to test the Fibo 0.382-0.5 area. If there is a sell signal in the price action, you may consider entering a sell order, with the target being to test the price zone around 1.26092-1.26100.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• Inflation (CPI and PPI): U.S. inflation figures will be a key indicator for gold movement. If inflation rises, gold may appreciate as investors view it as a safe-haven asset during periods of high inflation.
• GDP Growth Rate: The U.S. GDP growth rate will indicate the health of the economy. If GDP figures are strong, it could lead to a stronger dollar, which might result in a decline in gold prices.
• Retail Sales: Retail sales data will provide an overview of consumer spending in the U.S. If retail sales are strong, it could lead to a stronger dollar, which might put downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

On the daily timeframe, the price is showing potential signs of being in a sideways downtrend. The current price has tested the trend line and has not been able to break out. Monitor the price action; if the price fails to break through the trend line on the daily timeframe, it may be a signal to enter a sell position. Alternatively, if the price breaks out above the trend line, watch for a test of the 2450-2470 range and then observe the price action for signals on which direction to trade.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.