Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 10 – 14 February 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the second week of February, from 10 – 14 February 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• France Industrial Production (10 February): Strong production figures could support the euro, while figures below expectations could pressure the euro.
• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (10 February): A higher index suggests increased confidence in the Eurozone economy, which may be positive for the euro.
• Germany CPI (11 February): Inflation figures higher than expected may increase expectations for an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB), supporting the euro.
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (11 February): A higher index indicates increased confidence in the German economy, which could be positive for the euro.
• ECB Meeting (13 February): Investors will be watching for signals regarding future monetary policy. A hawkish stance could support the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. CPI (12 February): Higher-than-expected inflation figures could raise expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which would support the U.S. dollar and potentially pressure the EUR/USD pair.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (13 February): Figures lower than expected could support the U.S. dollar, while higher-than-expected figures might pressure the dollar.
• U.S. Retail Sales (14 February): Strong retail sales figures could support the U.S. dollar, while figures lower than expected could weaken the dollar.

Technical Analysis

Currently, the price is moving in a sideways range but shows a tendency to test the major support at 1.02300 first. It is recommended that you look for selling opportunities for short-term profit.

For more confidence, you can wait for the price to test the support level. If there is a buy price action at the major support, consider opening a buy order, as this setup would offer a better advantage.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Economic Sentiment Index (10 February): If the index comes out higher than expected, it could support the British pound (GBP). However, a lower-than-expected figure could put pressure on the currency.
• U.K. ISM Services PMI (10 February): A higher-than-expected figure could be positive for GBP, while a lower-than-expected result could weaken the currency.
• U.K. CPI (11 February): A higher inflation figure could increase the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) tightening monetary policy, which would support the pound. However, a lower-than-expected reading might prompt the BoE to delay interest rate hikes, which could put downward pressure on GBP.
• BoE Speech (13 February): Investors will be watching the BoE’s stance. A hawkish tone could support GBP, while a dovish tone could pressure the currency.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. CPI (12 February): If the inflation figure is higher than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar (USD) and put pressure on GBP/USD. However, if the number is lower than expected, it may help the British pound (GBP) strengthen.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (13 February): A lower-than-expected figure could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on GBP/USD.
• U.S. Retail Sales (14 February): A strong retail sales figure could support the U.S. dollar and pressure GBP/USD. Conversely, a weaker figure could help support the British pound.

Technical Analysis

The latest price has formed a Double Top pattern, meaning the price has encountered resistance at the same level twice and is now moving downward. For greater confidence, it is recommended to wait for the price to break below 1.23700 before considering a Follow Sell trade. This approach will be safer and reduce the risk of selling at the current price level.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (February 10): A high reading indicates strong economic confidence, which may reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset (Bearish XAU/USD). A lower reading could prompt investors to seek gold more (Bullish XAU/USD).
• Germany CPI (February 11): A higher inflation reading could reflect rising inflationary trends in Europe, which might support gold as an inflation hedge (Bullish XAU/USD).
• U.S. CPI (February 12): A higher-than-expected inflation number could encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain its interest rate hikes, which would pressure gold (Bearish XAU/USD). A lower-than-expected number could reduce rate hike pressure and support gold prices (Bullish XAU/USD).
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 13): A lower-than-expected number signals a strong labor market, which may support the dollar and pressure gold (Bearish XAU/USD). A higher-than-expected number may raise concerns about a potential recession, which could be positive for gold (Bullish XAU/USD).
• U.S. Retail Sales (February 10): Strong retail sales could be a positive factor for the dollar and a negative for gold (Bearish XAU/USD). Weaker retail sales could increase economic concerns and support gold (Bullish XAU/USD).

Technical Analysis

The price continues to move upwards. It is recommended to trade in the Buy direction only. You can use the 2835-2840 zone as an important support level. If the price tests this zone and holds above it, you can consider opening a Buy position. Alternatively, if you’re trading Buy in line with the trend at any price level, be cautious of potential sharp price drops. It is advised to use a Stop loss of 500-1000 points to protect against significant volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.