Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 1 – 5 July 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the first week of July, from July 1-5, 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Inflation and GDP Data: The announcement of inflation data and GDP growth rates is significant. If the data is positive, it may lead to expectations that the ECB will tighten monetary policy sooner, resulting in the euro appreciating in value.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Employment Data: The NFP report and the unemployment rate are important. Strong data can create expectations for a rate hike by the Fed, which would support the US dollar.
• Inflation Data: The CPI data is also significant. If inflation is higher than expected, it may lead to expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed, which would support the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD is currently holding support at the price of 1.06606. However, it is currently in a downtrend, with a descending trendline defining the price range. It is advisable to wait and observe the price behavior to see if it breaks out upwards or continues downwards. If it continues to decline, you can open a sell position, aiming to test the price level of 1.06606 again.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• Inflation and GDP Data: The announcement of inflation data and GDP growth rates is significant. If the data is positive, it may lead to expectations that the BoE will tighten monetary policy sooner, resulting in the pound appreciating in value.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Employment Data: The NFP report and the unemployment rate are significant. Strong figures can create expectations for a rate hike by the Fed, which would support the US dollar.
• Inflation Data: The CPI data is also important. If inflation is higher than expected, it may lead to expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed, which would support the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price range remains the same as last week’s plan. The price has bounced up to test the Fibo 0.618 level but could not close above this zone. This leaves a possibility for the price to test Fibo 0.5 at 1.25791. It is important to watch the price behavior. If the price manages to rise above the 0.618 level, it is advisable to wait and observe the market’s behavior before making any trading decisions.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• Employment Data: The NFP report and the unemployment rate are significant. Strong data can create expectations for a rate hike by the Fed, which would support the US dollar and put pressure on gold prices.
• Inflation Data: The CPI data is also significant. If inflation is higher than expected, it may lead to expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed, which would support the US dollar and put pressure on gold prices.
• Fed Statements: Any statements indicating monetary tightening can strengthen the US dollar, which would put pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Last week, the price tested the support level at 2300 and made a strong correction upward. However, there is still a trendline pressing the price down. For now, it is advisable to observe the price behavior to see if it will break out upwards or continue to decline. If it chooses to continue downward, you can sell, targeting the support level at 2300 for another test.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.