Weekly News Recap 11 – 15 November 2024

News for 11 November 2024

Gold Weakens Due to Stronger Dollar and U.S. Economic Data

At the end of last week, gold prices weakened, closing at $2,684/oz. The main reason was the stronger-than-expected U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came in at 73.0, along with the rise in the U.S. Dollar Index from 104.44 to 104.95. This stronger dollar put pressure on gold prices. Overall, it is assessed that gold is showing signs of weakness.

Nasdaq Closes Higher on Trump Victory and Republican Majority

The Nasdaq closed at 19,286.78 points, up by 17.32 points or +0.09%, supported by Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, along with the Republican Party gaining a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Japan’s Prime Minister Selection May Impact Government Stability and Currency

The Japanese parliament is set to vote on selecting a new prime minister during a session on November 11, with Shigeru Ishiba likely to remain in office despite the ruling party’s defeat in last month’s general elections.

If Ishiba stays on as prime minister, it could lead to long-term instability in the government, as his policies may not receive support from a majority in the parliament. This could put downward pressure on the yen, supporting a potential rebound in the USDJPY pair.

BOJ Warns Raising Interest Rates Too Quickly Could Lead to Market Volatility

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the summary of its October policy meeting on November 11, revealing differing views among committee members regarding the timing of interest rate hikes. Some members cautioned that raising interest rates too soon could lead to renewed volatility in the financial markets, highlighting this risk as a critical consideration before making any decisions.

Elon Musk Supports Presidential Intervention in Fed Policy

Elon Musk, a key supporter of Donald Trump, has endorsed the idea that the president should play a role in intervening in U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. He called for the Fed to operate under presidential oversight, accompanied by the hashtag #EndtheFed, signaling his push for reform within the central bank’s operations.

News for 12 November 2024

Gold Drops as Trump Wins, Dollar Strengthens

On November 11, gold prices continued to decline, closing at $2,619 per ounce. The main factors behind this decline were the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and investor concerns that Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election could introduce uncertainty into the Fed’s monetary policy.

It is assessed that gold is now in a downtrend, with the expectation of continued strengthening of the dollar.

U.S. Stock Indices Close Higher on Trump Rally

The Dow Jones closed at 44,293.13 points, up by 304.14 points or +0.69%. The S&P 500 finished at 6,001.35 points, rising by 5.81 points or +0.10%, while the Nasdaq closed at 19,298.76 points, gaining 11.99 points or +0.06%. The market continued to rally following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, with the “Trump Rally” contributing positively to the stock market’s recovery.

Tesla Stock Soars 8.9%, Market Cap Hits $1.1 Trillion

Tesla’s stock surged by 8.9%, driving the company’s market capitalization to reach $1.1 trillion. The rise was fueled by expectations that Tesla would benefit from the close relationship between CEO Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Musk played a significant role in supporting Trump’s election campaign, which may contribute to the positive outlook for Tesla.

Goldman Sachs Warns Trump’s Victory May Lead to Higher Tariffs on Chinese Imports

Goldman Sachs has cautioned that Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election could raise concerns about the potential for increased tariffs on Chinese imports. The investment bank expects such policies to negatively impact China’s economy. However, the firm noted that China may not be the only country in Asia affected, as trade policies could extend their impact to other nations in the region.

News for 13 November 2024

Gold Dips Below $2,600/oz Amid Strong Dollar and Rising Bond Yields

On November 12, gold prices dropped and closed at $2,598/oz, primarily driven by the strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields. This pressure on the market comes amid expectations that Donald Trump’s policies could fuel inflation.

On November 13, at 8:30 PM, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is set to be released, with an anticipated 2.6% reading, which could trigger a slight rebound in gold prices.

As of the morning of November 13, gold is hovering around $2,600/oz. It’s forecasted that a potential pullback in the dollar index could support gold prices.

Cresset Capital Warns of US10Y Yield Surge Pressuring US Economy Post-Trump Election

Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Cresset Capital, highlighted that the surge in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) is another factor impacting the market. Investors are becoming concerned that policies under Donald Trump’s administration, such as increased import tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and stricter immigration measures, could place inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy. These concerns are contributing to growing volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets.

Germany to Hold Early Election in February 2025 Following Government Collapse

Germany is set to hold a new election on February 23, 2025, after the collapse of the government. This election will be held earlier than previously announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had initially stated that elections would take place in March 2025.

Japan’s Wholesale Inflation Accelerates Due to Yen Depreciation, Adding Pressure on BOJ’s Rate Decision

Wholesale inflation in Japan accelerated in October, driven by the depreciation of the yen, which increased the cost of importing certain goods. This factor is likely to complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision-making process regarding the timing of interest rate hikes.

Global EV Sales Surge 35% in October, Led by 54% Growth in China

Market research firm Rho Motion revealed that global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids increased by 35% in October compared to the same month last year. The growth was seen across all regions, particularly in China, where sales surged by 54%.

U.S. Oil and Gas Industry Urges Trump to Cancel Climate Change Policies

The U.S. oil and gas industry has called on incoming President Donald Trump to revoke policies from President Joe Biden aimed at combating climate change. The industry argues that these measures pose a threat to jobs, consumer choices, and energy security.

News for 14 November 2024

Gold Weakens as U.S. Inflation Matches Expectations and Dollar Strengthens

On November 13, the U.S. October inflation data was released at 2.6%, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index rose from 106.01 to 106.48, strengthening the dollar and putting downward pressure on gold prices, which closed at $2,572/oz.

On November 14, at 20:30, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims data will be announced, with the PPI expected at 0.2% and jobless claims forecasted at 224k.

Edward Jones Strategists Confident Fed Will Cut Rates After CPI Data Matches Expectations

Investment strategists from Edward Jones expressed increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will likely reduce interest rates in its December meeting, following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in line with expectations. The data alleviated concerns among investors, who now believe that the Fed is on track to ease monetary policy.

Trump’s “America First” Policies Expected to Stimulate U.S. Economy and Drive Inflation Up

Dongye Zhang, Head of Investment Specialists at Aberdeen Asset Management, stated that following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, his “America First” policies are expected to positively impact the U.S. economy. These policies are likely to stimulate economic growth, but they could also push inflation (CPI) higher, with a potential rise to 3% from the current level of 2.4%. This inflationary pressure is anticipated to stem from rising labor costs in the service sector.

Japan Government to Prepare 13.5 Trillion Yen Budget to Stimulate Economy and Support Households

According to the Sankei newspaper, the Japanese government is preparing an additional budget of approximately 13.5 trillion yen (87 billion USD) to fund economic stimulus measures. The primary focus of this budget is to support low-income households and alleviate the impact of rising inflation.

News for 15 November 2024

Gold Weakens After Higher-than-Expected U.S. Jobless Claims, but Finds Support at Key Level

On November 14, gold prices softened, closing at $2,564/oz, largely due to higher-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims, which came in at 217,000. This data led to a stronger U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on gold. However, there was a rebound near a critical support level.

Looking ahead, on November 15, at 20:30, U.S. retail sales data will be released, with a forecast of 0.3%. It is anticipated that gold may continue to hold above the significant support level of $2,650/oz.

Market Eyes BOJ Governor’s Speech for Potential Interest Rate Hike Signal in December

Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), is scheduled to deliver a speech and hold a press conference in Nagoya on Monday, November 18. The market will be closely watching for any signals that the BOJ may consider raising interest rates in December. This event could provide important clues about the central bank’s monetary policy stance moving forward.