News for 27 May 2024

Gold Fails to Break Resistance, Beware of Gold Weakness

At the end of last week, gold prices rose slightly, closing at $2,333/oz. This was due to the U.S. Dollar Index weakening to 104.74, which supported the rise in gold prices.

However, gold is starting to form a sideways down pattern due to a lack of new supporting factors, and the chart has fallen below the support level of $2,350/oz, making the outlook not very promising.

Tesla’s EV Market Struggles to Recover – Impacting Leasing Industry

Latest industry data reports indicate that Tesla has reduced production of its Model Y cars by 10% at its Shanghai factory since March. The Model Y is Tesla’s best-selling model.

Regarding financing, according to market research firm Dataforce, purchases of Tesla cars by “leasing” and “rental” companies accounted for 44% of all Tesla sales last year in the UK and 15 EU member countries. As Tesla continues to announce continuous price reductions for its EVs, the revenues of leasing and rental companies are expected to decrease accordingly. Additionally, there’s a risk of loss due to the fact that the prices at which Fleet businesses bought Tesla vehicles are higher than the current market prices.

Global Competition for the Semiconductor Industry Intensifies

It is expected that in 2024 the chip market value may increase to $681 billion +11%YoY.

Recently, China established its third semiconductor fund worth 344 billion yuan (approximately $47.5 billion) to support the semiconductor industry. According to Tianyancha, a Chinese database company, China’s Ministry of Finance is the largest shareholder in this fund, holding 17% of the shares and investing 60 billion yuan. The China Development Bank (CDB) is the second-largest shareholder with a 10.5% stake.

In line with this, Reuters reported that South Korea announced support measures for the chip industry worth 26 trillion won ($19 billion) to boost the chip business, including chip design and contract manufacturing, as major global players ramp up their efforts in the semiconductor battlefield.

The competition for advanced chip innovation has led world leaders to provide strong support. Analysts estimate that by 2024, the market value of chips could reach $681 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 15% from 2023 to 2032. By 2032, the market value of chips could reach $2.06 trillion.

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News for 28 May 2024

Gold Awaits Direction

On May 27, the price of gold rose to test the resistance level of 2,350$/oz, which closed at 2,351$/oz. This was due to the dollar index weakening to 104.58. The weakening dollar supported the price of gold. Get up

As for May 28 at 9:00 p.m., keep an eye on the announcement of the US Consumer Confidence Index, forecast at 96.0.

It is estimated that the trend of gold prices has not yet chosen a direction.

Major Brokers Predict Continued Rise in Gold and Copper Prices

Copper

Citi Group expects copper prices to increase by $12k/t, and $15k/t in the next 12-18 months. This is due to tight supply since the end of 2023 after First Quantum Minerals stopped producing copper at its mine in Cobre Panamá, while demand increased after the chip industry recovered faster than expected, supporting copper prices to continue rising.

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News for 29 May 2024

Gold Holds Support but Faces Resistance, Awaiting PCE

On May 28, the price of gold rose to close at 2,361$/oz due to the dollar index weakening to 104.61. The weakening dollar supported the price of gold to increase.

As for May 29 at 9:00 p.m., there will be an announcement of the Richmond branch manufacturing index numbers of the United States. Forecast level -6

Looking at the price of gold, the answer to the news is more positive. Even though the US economic numbers came out higher than expected.

Apple’s Revenue Shows Positive Signs! – In April, iPhone shipments in China surged by 52%.

In April 67 iPhone shipments in China recovered, rising 52% after retailers flocked to reduce the prices of the smartphones. According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), smartphone shipments in China have skyrocketed, reaching about 3.5 million units, mostly iPhone shipments, and the increase has been strong. This price reduction will last until 18 June 2024.

Two analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence, Steven Tseng and Sean Chen, stated that “iPhone’s Chinese market share may begin to stabilize soon after declining. Our latest survey shows Apple’s return as the favorite smartphone brand of Chinese consumers after being overtaken by Huawei.”

IMF Raises China’s GDP Forecast for 2024

IMF estimates that China’s economic outlook is recovering strongly in 1Q24, with GDP coming out higher than expected at 5.3% due to economic stimulus policies from the government and the recovering export sector, causing the IMF to increase GDP growth in 2024 to 5% from 4.6% and GDP in 2025 grows to 4.5% from 4.1%.

In the real estate sector, the Chinese government is actively reducing the housing inventory by lowering prices and injecting funds into the real estate market to mitigate the crisis.

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News for 30 May 2024

Gold Breaks Key Support Level

On May 29, the price of gold weakened to close at 2,338$/oz due to the Richmond branch manufacturing index coming out better than expected. In addition, the dollar index accelerated to the level of 105.11. The dollar strengthened, putting pressure on gold prices.

As of May 30 at 7:30 p.m., there was an announcement of the GDP of the United States, expected to be 1.2%.

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News for 31 May 2024

Gold Stabilizes at Resistance, Awaiting Direction

On May 30, the price of gold rose to close at 2,343$/oz. This was due to home orders contracting lower than expected at -7.7%, along with a weakening of the dollar index. At the level of 104.74, the dollar weakened, supporting the price of gold to increase.

On May 31 at 7:30 p.m., the Core PCE inflation index figures are scheduled to be announced, with an expected value of 0.3%.

Japan Prepares to Answer Questions – Clearing Doubts on Market Intervention to Support Yen

Bloomberg News reports that investors will find out on May 31 whether Japan intervened in the market to support the yen over the past month. The weakened yen is at risk of being sold off if officials do not intervene or use more money than expected.

Comparing the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) deposits with broker forecasts, Japan spent approximately 9.4 trillion yen (or $64 billion) on yen purchases twice on April 29th and May 1st. If the amount exceeds 9.1 trillion yen, it would mark the highest monthly intervention statistic for Japan.

The Ministry of Finance, which refuses to confirm or deny any intervention, is scheduled to disclose information to answer questions about market intervention at 7:00 p.m. local time or around 5:00 p.m. Thailand time on May 31. The intense market volatility, BOJ account flows, and the timing chosen to seemingly avoid immediate disclosures over the past month indicate Japan’s substantial yen buying and the desire to delay confirmation for as long as possible.