Weekly News Recap 6 – 10 January 2025

News for 6 January 2025

Gold Awaiting Direction, Rebound Possible

At the end of last week, gold prices declined, closing at $2,640/oz due to the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM) coming in higher than expected at 49.3. This led to capital flowing into risk assets, putting pressure on safe-haven assets like gold, which faced selling pressure.

On January 6, at 21:45, the U.S. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is set to be announced, with a forecast of 58.5.

Elon Musk Clashes with Nigel Farage

Elon Musk, the tech billionaire, has confronted Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform UK party, a right-wing political group in the UK. Musk stated that Farage should resign from his position as party leader. 

This incident reflects the growing tension between a global tech leader and a politician who supports Brexit, as Farage continues to challenge the political institutions of the UK.

Chip Market Soars! Expected to Reach $697 Billion by 2025, Driven by AI Demand

The global chip market is projected to grow by 11.2%, reaching $697.2 billion in 2025, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors in data centers and AI-enabled smartphones. Industry organizations have revised their forecast upward from the $687.9 billion projected in June, reflecting a positive market outlook.

Goldman Sachs Revises Gold Target to $3,000 by Mid-2026

Goldman Sachs has updated its gold price forecast, pushing back its target for gold to reach $3,000 per ounce to mid-2026, from the previously anticipated timeframe of late 2025. The adjustment comes from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely reduce interest rate cuts less aggressively this year.

News for 7 January 2025

Gold Steady Near Resistance Levels

On January 6, gold prices weakened, closing at $2,636 per ounce, driven by a flow of capital into risk assets as the U.S. approached the announcement of Q4 2024 financial results. This shift caused a sell-off in safe-haven assets like gold.

On January 7, at 10:00 PM, the U.S. is expected to release its services PMI and job openings data, with forecasts of 53.5 and 7.73 million job openings, respectively.

Gold is expected to trade in a sideways range between $2,625 and $2,650 per ounce, as there are no major new factors driving the market, especially with Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025.

Trump Discusses Plan for New Import Tariffs Focused on Key Industries

According to a report by The Washington Post, citing sources, Donald Trump is in discussions with close associates regarding a plan to impose import tariffs focused specifically on industries critical to national security or the U.S. economy. This approach would differ from the previously proposed universal tariffs, which would have applied a 10%-20% tax across all industries, as Trump had outlined during his election campaign.

Saudi Aramco Raises Oil Prices for First Time in Three Months

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, has announced an increase in the price of crude oil sold to customers in Asia for February. This marks the first price hike in three months, following the decision by OPEC+ to extend production cuts for an additional three months. At the same time, oil supplies from Russia and Iran have decreased.

Global Crude Oil Exports Decrease by 2% in 2024

According to transportation data, global crude oil exports are expected to decline by 2% in 2024, marking the first decrease since the COVID-19 pandemic. The primary reasons for this drop include sluggish demand, refinery changes, and adjustments in oil trade routes through pipelines.

News for 8 January 2025

Gold Weakens After Economic Data Release

On January 7, the price of gold increased to close at $2,648/oz, primarily due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar from 108.33 to 107.84, which supported a rise in gold prices.

On January 8, at 8:15 PM, U.S. data on private sector employment and initial jobless claims will be released, with forecasts of 139k and 214k, respectively.

The U.S. labor market is showing continuous signs of recovery, while inflation may increase towards 3%. This could lead to expectations that the Federal Reserve might slow down interest rate cuts, which may strengthen the dollar. For the day, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $2,635-2,660/oz.

PBOC Continues Gold Purchases for Two Consecutive Months, Boosting Reserves to 73.29 Million Ounces

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has continued to buy gold for the second consecutive month in December 2024, increasing China’s gold reserves to 73.29 million ounces, up from 72.96 million ounces in November.

The PBOC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus. This move reflects China’s commitment to strengthening its foreign exchange reserves with safe-haven assets such as gold.

Meta Cancels Fact-Checking Program in Response to Trump Administration Transition

Meta Platforms announced on Tuesday, January 7, 2025, that it is discontinuing its fact-checking program in the United States and easing restrictions on sensitive issues, such as immigration and gender identity.

This change comes in response to criticism from conservative groups, amid the transition of government with Donald Trump preparing to assume the U.S. presidency for a second term on January 20, 2025.

Bostic Predicts Inflation Will Reach Fed’s 2% Target, Cautions on Monetary Policy

Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated that he expects U.S. inflation to continue slowing throughout the year and likely reach the Fed’s 2% target. However, he cautioned that decisions regarding monetary policy must be made carefully to address potential risks that may arise in the future.

News for 9 January 2025

Gold Rebounds After Job Data Misses Expectations

On January 8, gold prices rose to close at $2,661/oz after U.S. private sector job data for December 2024 came in lower than expected, at 122k. This led investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset. 

However, gold prices are expected to remain volatile, ranging between $2,645 and $2,670/oz. The market is closely watching the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment data from the U.S. for clearer signals on the economic outlook in the near future.

CNN Reports: Trump May Use Emergency Powers to Impose Tariffs

CNN reports that after his presidential inauguration on January 20, Donald Trump may invoke emergency economic powers under U.S. law to implement tariffs on imported goods. This measure is part of his campaign promises to protect the U.S. economy and domestic industries.

FOMC Report: Fed Concerns Over Inflation and Trump Policies Slow Rate Cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December 17-18 meeting, where officials expressed concerns about inflation trends and the potential impact of Donald Trump’s economic policies as the incoming president.

The report indicates that the Fed will slow down interest rate cuts in the short term due to ongoing economic uncertainties, which could affect future policy decisions.

Australia’s Trade Surplus Soars, Boosted by Commodity Exports

Australia’s trade surplus for November surged beyond expectations, driven by strong commodity exports. The robust demand for Australian goods was spurred by China’s economic stimulus measures, which helped increase imports from Australia.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the trade surplus reached AUD 7.08 billion (USD 4.39 billion), surpassing analysts’ forecast of AUD 5.75 billion and up from AUD 5.67 billion in October.

News for 10 January 2025

Gold Rises as Investors Watch Trump’s Policies

On January 9, gold prices rose to close at $2,670/oz, driven by investors seeking gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns that Donald Trump’s policies could impact inflation.

On January 10, at 8:30 PM, the U.S. will release Non-farm Payroll and unemployment rate figures, with forecasts of 164k and 4.2%, respectively.

JPMorgan Expects California Wildfire Insurance Costs to Exceed $20 Billion

Analysts from JPMorgan revealed on Thursday, January 9, that the insurance costs for damages caused by wildfires in Los Angeles, California, are expected to exceed $20 billion. This figure has doubled from the previous day’s estimate.

UN Projects Global Economic Growth at 2.8% in 2025, Weighed Down by US and China

The United Nations (UN) forecasts global economic growth at 2.8% in 2025, the same rate as in 2024. The global economy is expected to continue facing challenges due to the slowdown in both the US and China.

Nvidia Criticizes New US Export Restrictions on Chips

Nvidia, a major US AI chip manufacturer, has criticized the new export restrictions on chips, which are expected to be announced soon. The company suggested that the Biden administration’s measures could be seen as an attempt to undermine the incoming Trump administration by imposing restrictions in the final moments of Biden’s presidency.

PBOC Suspends Bond Purchases, Strengthening the Yuan

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced today (January 10) that it will suspend its purchases of government bonds. This decision has led to a spike in Chinese bond yields and sparked speculation that the move aims to curb the depreciation of the yuan.