Weekly News Recap 25 – 29 November 2024

News for 25 November 2024

Gold Weakens Below $2,700/oz This Morning

At the end of last week, gold prices rose to close at $2,716/oz, driven by concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war and the impact of President Biden’s policies, with gold benefiting as a safe-haven asset.

On November 25, gold prices weakened, falling below the key support level of $2,700/oz due to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, which dropped from 107.48 to 106.87 during the day. The outlook for gold prices is expected to remain within a range, with support at $2,690/oz and resistance at $2,710/oz.

JPMorgan Forecasts a More Challenging Investment Outlook in 2025

JPMorgan anticipates that investing in 2025 will not be as straightforward as this year. Depending on the new government’s policies, the U.S. economy is likely to follow two potential paths.

The first scenario suggests that if the new administration implements tax cuts and relaxes regulations, it could boost business confidence and GDP growth. Inflation may remain at manageable levels.

On the other hand, the second scenario envisions a more uncertain environment. If the government faces challenges such as increased tariffs, restrictions on immigration, and heightened trade tensions, the U.S. economy could experience stagnation. In this case, GDP growth may slow to just 2%, and inflation could rise due to new measures, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.

News for 26 November 2024

Gold Faces Downward Trend Following Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Agreement

Gold prices declined to close at $2,426/oz due to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. This development reduced geopolitical tensions, prompting profit-taking on gold, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset.

Additionally, on November 26 at 22:00, the U.S. will release consumer confidence data, with expectations set at 111.8, along with the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which is forecasted at -10.

Trump Pledges to Impose Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China

Donald Trump, the presumptive U.S. President, has pledged to impose a 25% import tax on all goods from Mexico and Canada starting on his first day in office. Additionally, he plans to increase tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%. Trump cites illegal immigration and drug trafficking as key reasons for implementing these measures.

India Rejects Apple’s Appeal to Halt Antitrust Investigation

On November 24, Reuters reported that the Competition Commission of India (CCI) rejected Apple’s request to suspend the findings of an investigation that concluded the company violated antitrust laws. This decision allows the case to proceed as per the regulatory body’s directives.

ECB May Cut Rates by Another 0.5% Following Disappointing European PMI Data

Bloomberg reported that the European Central Bank (ECB), which has already implemented three rate cuts, is expected to announce another reduction next month. Analysts speculate that the next cut could be as steep as 0.5% after last Friday’s disappointing PMI data revealed a contraction in Europe’s private sector economy.

U.S. Court Dismisses Criminal Case Against Trump After Prosecutors Withdraw Charges

A U.S. federal judge has dismissed a criminal case against Donald Trump, the incoming President, which accused him of attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. The dismissal follows a request from prosecutors to withdraw this case and another pending case against Trump, citing the U.S. Department of Justice’s policy prohibiting legal action against a sitting president.

News for 27 November 2024

Gold Edges Higher as Dollar Weakens

On November 26, gold prices edged higher, closing at $2,633/oz, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar index, which settled at 106.87. The dollar’s decline provided support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Looking ahead, key U.S. economic data will be released on November 27 at 8:30 PM (UTC+7), including weekly jobless claims, projected at 215k, and durable goods orders, forecasted to rise by 0.4%.

Australia’s Inflation Falls Below Expectations in October

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that October’s inflation rate came in below expectations, thanks to government subsidies reducing electricity costs and a decline in rental expenses.

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year in October, falling short of economists’ forecasts of a 2.3% increase as per Bloomberg’s survey. The CPI remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 3-month inflation target range of 2%-3%.

Fed Minutes Reveal Divided Opinions on Rate Cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes from its November 6-7 meeting, highlighting differing opinions among members on the extent of future rate cuts. Despite these differences, the committee agreed on the importance of avoiding overly specific guidance regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Eli Lilly Shares Surge 4.6% Following Biden’s Healthcare Expansion Proposal

Shares of Eli Lilly, a leading U.S. pharmaceutical company, jumped 4.6% after President Joe Biden proposed expanding Medicare and Medicaid to include coverage for weight-loss drugs.

News for 28 November 2024

Gold Forms Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern

On November 27, gold prices rose to $2,636/oz, driven by a weaker U.S. Dollar Index, which dropped from 106.82 to 106.02. The dollar’s depreciation supported the upward movement in gold prices.

Looking ahead to November 28, U.S. markets will remain closed for Thanksgiving, likely resulting in low trading volumes in the futures market.

FTC Launches Antitrust Investigation into Microsoft

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has initiated an antitrust investigation into Microsoft. The probe spans several business sectors, including cloud computing, software licensing, cybersecurity services, and AI products.

Nuclear War Risk Remains Low Despite U.S. Allowing Ukraine to Strike Russia

Five senior sources familiar with U.S. intelligence disclosed to Reuters that while the U.S. has permitted Ukraine to use American weapons for deep strikes within Russian territory and despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly tough rhetoric, the risk of nuclear war has not escalated and remains highly unlikely.

OPEC+ Postpones Oil Production Policy Meeting to December 5

Two sources confirmed today (November 28) that OPEC+ has decided to delay its oil production policy meeting to Thursday, December 5, stating that some parties were unavailable for the original meeting date on Sunday, December 1. 

The meeting will discuss the potential delay of the planned oil production increase, which was originally set to begin in January next year. If the increase occurs along with rising stockpiles, it could put downward pressure on oil prices.

News for 29 November 2024

Gold Moves in Narrow Range on Thanksgiving Day

On November 28, gold prices traded in a narrow range, closing at $2,637/oz, primarily due to the U.S. stock market being closed for Thanksgiving, resulting in lighter trading volumes. 

In the short term, it is expected that gold may rebound within a narrow range, but the rebound potential appears limited. A sideways strategy is recommended during this period.

Canada Seeks Understanding with the U.S. After Trump’s Import Tax Announcement

Canadian ministers have stated that the Canadian government needs to establish a mutual understanding with the U.S. government about the vital energy market link between the two countries. This follows Donald Trump’s announcement that he intends to impose a 25% import tax on all goods from Canada, which could impact trade between the two nations, particularly in the energy sector where both countries are closely interconnected.

Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index Rises to 36.4 in November

Japan’s Cabinet Office revealed today that the country’s Consumer Confidence Index for November increased to 36.4, meeting market expectations. This follows a decline in October when the index dropped to a five-month low of 36.2.

Germany to Allocate New Subsidies for Semiconductor Industry

The German government is set to allocate additional subsidies for the semiconductor industry after Intel decided to cancel its plan to build a €30 billion ($32 billion) chip manufacturing plant in Magdeburg.