Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 9 – 13 December 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the second week of December, from 9 – 13 November 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa EUR/USD Ngayong Linggo:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index (December 9): This indicator reflects investor sentiment towards the economy in the Eurozone. If the number comes out higher than expected, it could be a positive factor for the euro. However, if it is lower than expected, it may put pressure on the euro, causing it to weaken.
• German CPI (December 10): This indicator measures inflation in Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone. If the figure comes in higher than expected, it could lead to a stronger euro.
• ECB Meeting (December 12): If the ECB adopts a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, it could support a stronger euro. However, if the ECB expresses a negative outlook for the Eurozone economy, it could put downward pressure on the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• FOMC Meeting (December 11): If the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish stance and signals further interest rate hikes, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the euro. However, if the Fed adopts a dovish stance, it may support the euro, causing it to appreciate.
• U.S. CPI (December 13): This indicator measures inflation in the U.S. If the number comes out higher than expected, it could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar and put pressure on the euro. However, if the number is lower than expected, it could boost the euro and lead to its appreciation.

Teknikal Analysis

The current price has risen to test the resistance level at 1.06300 but has not been able to break through. It is recommended to closely monitor the price action. If the price continues to struggle at this resistance level, consider looking for a Sell opportunity with the target at the lower support level, which may test the 1.03300 zone.

If the price successfully breaks through the 1.06300 resistance, it is advised to wait for confirmation signals before taking any action to mitigate the risk of a potential price reversal.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa GBP/USD Ngayong Linggo:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Halifax House Price Index (December 10): This indicator reflects changes in the housing market in the UK. If housing prices rise, it could be positive for the British pound. However, if prices decline, it may put pressure on the pound, causing it to weaken.
• BoE Statement (December 10): If the Bank of England signals a hawkish stance on monetary policy, it could support the British pound. However, if the statement is dovish, it may create downward pressure on the pound.
• U.K. Trade Balance (December 13): If the trade balance shows improvement (reducing the trade deficit), it could support the British pound. Conversely, if the figures indicate a worsening trade deficit, it may negatively affect the pound.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC Meeting) (December 11): If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance regarding further interest rate hikes, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the British pound. However, if the Fed adopts a dovish stance, the British pound may receive support.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (December 12): If the jobless claims data comes out better than expected, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and create downward pressure on the British pound. Conversely, if the numbers are worse than expected, the British pound may appreciate.
• U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) (December 12): This indicator reflects inflation in the manufacturing sector. If the figure comes in higher than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar and potentially weaken the British pound.
• U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) (December 13): If the consumer inflation data is higher than expected, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the British pound. However, if the figure is lower than expected, the British pound could receive support from the movement.

European Economic Data Affecting GBP/USD:

• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index (December 9): Although this index is not directly related to the UK, it has the potential to affect overall market sentiment in Europe. If the figure comes in higher than expected, it could indirectly support the British pound through adjustments in related financial markets.

Teknikal Analysis

The current price has risen to test the resistance level at 1.28100 but has not been able to break through. It is recommended to wait until the price tests the next resistance zone around 1.28700-1.28500. If the price fails to break this resistance, consider opening a Sell position with the target at the support level around 1.25000. However, if the price manages to break through this resistance, it is advised to observe further price behavior before making any decisions to confirm a clear trend.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa XAU/USD Ngayong Linggo:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index (December 9): This figure can impact the investment climate for risk assets. If investor confidence declines, it may prompt investors to shift toward safe-haven assets like gold. However, if the number improves, it could exert downward pressure on gold prices.
• German CPI (December 10): As the inflation indicator for the largest economy in the Eurozone, if the figure comes in higher than expected, it may raise concerns about inflation, leading investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge.
• FOMC Meeting (December 11): If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance on further interest rate hikes, the U.S. dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on gold prices. However, if the Fed signals a dovish outlook, gold may receive support from expectations of policy easing.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (December 12): This data reflects the strength of the labor market. If the figures come in better than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures may boost gold prices.
• U.S. PPI (December 12): This indicator reflects inflation in the production sector. If the number comes in higher than expected, the dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on gold. However, if it is lower than expected, gold prices could rise.
• U.S. CPI (December 13): This consumer inflation figure, if higher than expected, could strengthen the U.S. dollar and create downward pressure on gold. On the other hand, if the number is lower than expected, gold may benefit from expectations of lower interest rates.

Teknikal Analysis

Gold prices are currently moving sideways within the range of 2600-2670, showing no clear direction, and could move either up or down. The latest NFP data released last Friday came out better than expected, but gold prices have not confirmed a downward move. Additionally, on Saturday, there was news that the People’s Bank of China has increased its gold purchases, which could lead to a potential rise in gold prices this week. It is recommended to wait for a clearer price direction before opening any orders, as the price could move in either direction at the moment for the XAU/USD.

Disclaimer: Ang artikulong ito ay isang pagsusuri lamang mula sa coach sa RoboAcademy at hindi nilayon bilang payo sa pamumuhunan sa anumang paraan. Mapanganib ang pamumuhunan. Dapat pag-aralan ng mga namumuhunan ang impormasyon bago gumawa ng mga desisyon sa pamumuhunan.