Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 13 – 17 January 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the third week of January, from 13 – 17 January 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa EUR/USD Ngayong Linggo:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone Industrial Production (13 January): Strong figures would reflect economic recovery in the region and support the euro.
• Germany CPI (14 January): If the data shows increasing inflationary pressure, it could support the euro, as it may lead the ECB to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (14 January): If the figures come in higher than expected, it could provide additional support for the euro.
• Eurozone Trade Balance (17 January): If the Eurozone posts a higher-than-expected trade surplus, it could strengthen the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. CPI (15 January): Higher-than-expected inflation figures may support the U.S. dollar, as the market may anticipate further rate hikes by the Fed.
• U.S. PPI (16 January): An increase in the PPI could further support the U.S. dollar, as it reflects rising inflationary pressures in the business sector.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (16 January): Lower-than-expected claims may strengthen the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. Industrial Production (17 January): Strong figures could boost confidence in the U.S. dollar and apply pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Teknikal Analysis

The price has followed the plan and has broken the significant support level around 1.02600. Although the price has bounced slightly, it is still expected that there will be many buy orders in this zone.

It is recommended to wait for the price to rise a bit further into the Fibonacci 0.5-0.618 range (between 1.03230 and 1.02960). If a clear sell price action signal appears in this area, you can enter a sell order, aiming for further price decline.

If the price breaks below this zone in the future, the next support level to watch closely is around 1.0100, which is an important level to assess the price movement trend.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa GBP/USD Ngayong Linggo:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Preliminary GDP (Q4) (January 13): If the GDP figure comes in stronger than expected, it could support the British pound. However, if the GDP is weaker than expected, it could pressure the pound and negatively impact currency pairs in the market.
• U.K. CPI (January 14): If the CPI indicates rising inflation, it could increase the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates, which may support the British pound.
• U.K. Trade Balance (January 17): If the U.K. trade balance shows a higher-than-expected trade surplus, it could provide further support to the British pound, pushing it higher.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. CPI (January 15): If the inflation figure is higher than expected, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the GBP/USD pair, as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further.
• U.S. PPI (January 16): If the producer price index shows increased inflationary pressures, it may support the U.S. dollar and weigh on the GBP/USD pair.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (January 16): If the jobless claims figure is lower than expected, it could bolster the U.S. dollar, adding pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
• U.S. Industrial Production (January 17): If industrial production data comes in strong, it could provide further support to the U.S. dollar and apply downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Teknikal Analysis

The price has moved down according to the plan set last week, and it has recently broken below the key support level at 1.23400, showing a continued downtrend.

It is recommended to follow the Sell signal on smaller timeframes if a clear Price Action Sell signal appears. The next target will be to test the support level at 1.20900, assuming the price continues to move lower as expected.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa XAU/USD Ngayong Linggo:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Dollar Movement (January 13): The movement of the dollar at the start of the week may set the trend framework for gold.
• Eurozone Industrial Production Data (January 13): If the data is better than expected, it may reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Germany CPI (January 14): Germany’s inflation data could impact sentiment in the Eurozone, which might affect the price of gold.
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January 14): If the numbers indicate improved confidence in the Eurozone, it may put downward pressure on gold prices.
• U.S. CPI (January 15): If U.S. inflation data is higher than expected, the dollar may strengthen and put downward pressure on gold prices.
• U.S. PPI (January 16): Higher-than-expected PPI numbers may cause the dollar to strengthen, creating additional downward pressure on gold.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (January 16): If the numbers are lower than expected, it may boost confidence in the dollar and add downward pressure on gold prices.
• U.S. Industrial Production Data (January 17): Strong data could support the dollar and put pressure on gold.
• Eurozone Trade Balance Data (January 17): A stronger-than-expected trade balance in the Eurozone could lead to a stronger euro, increasing pressure on the dollar, which may help support gold prices.
• Global Economic Risk Factors: The market may adjust its gold investment positions based on global economic and geopolitical conditions.

Teknikal Analysis

The price has risen against the strengthening of the U.S. dollar (USD), which has caused the overall chart to move in a downward direction. However, recently the price has closed above the resistance level at 2675.

It is recommended to wait for the price to retrace and retest the broken resistance level to confirm the reversal (Retest). Once there is a clear test signal, you can follow the Buy to target the next resistance zone around 2700-2720.

Exercise caution in trading, as there is a possibility the price may drop back to test the 2650 zone, which could be a false move to sweep out retail traders before reversing upwards again.

Disclaimer: Ang artikulong ito ay isang pagsusuri lamang mula sa coach sa RoboAcademy at hindi nilayon bilang payo sa pamumuhunan sa anumang paraan. Mapanganib ang pamumuhunan. Dapat pag-aralan ng mga namumuhunan ang impormasyon bago gumawa ng mga desisyon sa pamumuhunan.