Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 16 – 20 December 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the third week of December, from 16 – 20 December 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa EUR/USD Ngayong Linggo:

European Economic Data:

• German Business Sentiment Index (16 December): This index reflects the outlook of the business sector in Germany. If the figures come out higher than expected, it could support the euro. Conversely, if the results are below expectations, it may negatively impact the euro.
• Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI (17 December): A PMI figure above expectations indicates economic expansion in the Eurozone, which could bolster the euro. On the other hand, if the result falls short of expectations, it may pressure the euro.
• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (18 December): The CPI reflects inflation in the Eurozone. If the data exceeds expectations, it could be a positive factor for the euro.
• ECB Meeting (19 December): If the ECB takes a “hawkish” stance on monetary policy, it could support the euro. However, a “dovish” tone may have a negative effect on the euro.
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) (20 December): A figure higher than expected could provide additional support for the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Building Permits (17 December): This figure reflects the strength of the U.S. real estate market. If the data exceeds expectations, the dollar may gain support and strengthen.
• U.S. Retail Sales (18 December): Higher-than-expected retail sales figures could strengthen the dollar and pressure the euro. However, if the numbers fall short of expectations, the euro may gain support instead.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (19 December): This data indicates the strength of the U.S. labor market. A decline in jobless claims or a favorable result may bolster the dollar’s strength.
• U.S. GDP (20 December): Robust economic growth figures from the U.S. could support a stronger dollar and put pressure on the euro.

Teknikal Analysis

The current price is consolidating around the support level at approximately 1.04600. It is advisable to wait and observe whether the price will move upward or continue to decline.

If the price breaks down through the support, wait for a retest of the previous support level before following the sell trend. Alternatively, consider selling at the resistance zone around 1.06200 if the price rises to that level.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa GBP/USD Ngayong Linggo:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders (16 December): This figure reflects activity in the U.K. industrial sector. If the result comes out better than expected, it may support the British pound. However, if it is worse than expected, it may negatively affect the pound.
• U.K. Manufacturing & Services PMI (17 December): The PMI figure indicates economic growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. If the result comes out higher than expected, it may help strengthen the pound. Conversely, if it is lower than expected, it could put pressure on the pound.
• U.K. CPI (18 December): The CPI figure is a key indicator of inflation. If inflation is higher than expected, it may increase pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more stringent monetary policy, which could benefit the pound.
• U.K. PPI (19 December): The PPI figure reflects production costs. If it comes out higher than expected, it may support the British pound.
• U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence (20 December): If consumer confidence figures come out better than expected, it could positively impact the British pound.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Building Permits (17 December): This figure reflects the strength of the U.S. real estate market. If the result comes out better than expected, it may support the U.S. dollar and strengthen it.
• U.S. Retail Sales (18 December): If retail sales come out higher than expected, the U.S. dollar may strengthen and put pressure on the British pound. However, if retail sales are lower than expected, the British pound may receive support instead.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (19 December): This figure reflects the strength of the U.S. labor market. If the result is positive, the U.S. dollar may strengthen and put pressure on the British pound.
• U.S. GDP (20 December): Strong economic growth in the U.S. may result in a stronger U.S. dollar, which could put pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Teknikal Analysis

The price has moved according to the analysis from last week, with a continuous decline as predicted. It is recommended to look for a Sell opportunity to profit from the price’s downward movement, with the target being a test of the support level around 1.25000.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa XAU/USD Ngayong Linggo:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• German Business Sentiment Index (December 16): If the data reflects an economic slowdown in Germany, it could drive investors to hold gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially pushing gold prices higher.
• Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI (December 17): A PMI reading below expectations may weaken confidence in the Eurozone economy, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold.
• U.S. Building Permits (December 17): A strong result could signal a robust U.S. economy, potentially putting pressure on gold prices.
• Eurozone CPI (December 18): Higher inflation figures may raise concerns about economic stability and increase demand for gold as a safe haven.
• U.S. Retail Sales (December 18): Strong retail sales could support the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on gold prices, but if the data is weaker than expected, gold prices may rise.
• ECB Meeting (December 19): If the ECB expresses concerns about the economic outlook, it could prompt investors to increase their holdings of gold as a safe-haven asset.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (December 19): Better-than-expected claims data would suggest a strong labor market, which could support the dollar and weigh on gold prices.
• Eurozone CCI (December 20): A weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index might drive demand for safe-haven assets, potentially boosting gold prices.
• U.S. GDP (December 20): A strong U.S. GDP reading could bolster the dollar and apply downward pressure on gold prices.

Teknikal Analysis

Currently, the price has broken out of the previous trendline and is testing a key support level. If the price manages to hold above this support, there is a high chance that it will resume the uptrend.

It is recommended to wait for a confirmation candlestick. If a bullish candle with clear buying pressure forms at the support level, it would be a good signal to open a Buy position. The suggested entry zone is around 2630, which is an important support base.

Disclaimer: Ang artikulong ito ay isang pagsusuri lamang mula sa coach sa RoboAcademy at hindi nilayon bilang payo sa pamumuhunan sa anumang paraan. Mapanganib ang pamumuhunan. Dapat pag-aralan ng mga namumuhunan ang impormasyon bago gumawa ng mga desisyon sa pamumuhunan.