Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 11 – 15 November 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the third week of November, from 11 – 15 November 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa EUR/USD Ngayong Linggo:

European Economic Data:

• EU Manufacturing PMI (November 11): This index reflects the economic conditions in the European industrial sector. If the PMI figures are higher than expected, the euro could strengthen. However, if the figures are lower than anticipated, the euro may weaken against the US dollar.
• EU Employment Rate (November 12): A higher-than-expected employment rate would indicate a strong labor market, which could positively impact the euro. Conversely, if the employment rate falls short of expectations, it may put downward pressure on the euro.
• EU Industrial Production (November 14): This figure measures the strength of the industrial sector in Europe. If the industrial production data comes in better than expected, it could be a positive factor for the euro. On the other hand, a decline in production below expectations could lead to a weakening of the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• US Producer Price Index (PPI) (November 12): The PPI measures inflation at the production level. If the index comes in higher than expected, it could strengthen the US dollar, putting downward pressure on the euro.
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (November 13): The CPI is a key indicator of inflation in the US. A higher-than-expected inflation rate could raise expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may increase interest rates, which could strengthen the dollar and weigh on the euro.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (November 14): If the number of jobless claims exceeds expectations, it would indicate a weakening labor market in the US, which may cause the dollar to weaken and support the euro.
• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November 15): Higher-than-expected consumer confidence could boost the US dollar and pressure the euro. Conversely, if the index comes in lower than expected, the euro may benefit.

Teknikal Analysis

The price is still holding above the support level at 1.06700, as it has not been able to close below this level. This indicates that there may be a chance for the price to bounce from this point, so caution is advised when trading, as a potential upward movement from this support level is possible.

However, the outlook still suggests that there is a chance for further downside, given that the election has concluded and Donald Trump has been elected president, which has led to a significant strengthening of the USD. It is recommended to wait for the right opportunity to open a Sell position, as it may be a safer strategy.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa GBP/USD Ngayong Linggo:

U.K. Economic Data:

• UK Manufacturing PMI (November 11): The PMI index is an indicator of economic conditions in the UK’s industrial sector. If the PMI number comes out higher than expected, it could strengthen the British pound against the US dollar. However, if the PMI is lower than expected, it could pressure the pound to decline.
• UK Labor Market Report (November 12): This report includes data on the unemployment rate and new job creation. If the employment figures are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than expected, it would support the pound. On the other hand, if the labor market is weaker than anticipated, it could lead to a weakening of the pound.
• UK Producer Price Index (PPI) (November 14): The PPI index reflects inflation at the production level. If the PPI figures are higher than expected, it could support the pound, as it may indicate that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain higher interest rates to control inflation.

U.S. Economic Data:

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (November 13): The CPI is a key indicator of inflation in the US. If inflation comes in higher than expected, investors may anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates, which could strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on the British pound.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (November 14): If the number of initial jobless claims is higher than expected, it may indicate a weaker labor market in the US, which could lead to a weaker US dollar and potentially strengthen the British pound.
• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November 15): If consumer sentiment in the US is higher than expected, it could strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on the British pound. Conversely, if the index comes in lower than expected, the US dollar may weaken, which could support the British pound.

Teknikal Analysis

The price is still moving according to the analysis over the past two weeks, with a consistent downward movement. The 1.28700 level remains a strong support, but it is expected that the price will continue to decline due to the strengthening of the USD after the election results.

It is recommended to sell at resistance in smaller timeframes, which presents a higher opportunity for profit. If the price breaks lower, the next target support could be around 1.26500.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Mahahalagang Economic Events na Nakakaapekto sa XAU/USD Ngayong Linggo:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• EU & UK Manufacturing PMI (November 11): If the manufacturing PMI figures come out strong, it could signal positive economic growth, which may reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, if the PMI is weaker than expected, investment in gold could rise as investors seek to avoid economic uncertainty.
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) (November 12): The PPI indicates inflation at the production level. If the PPI is higher than expected, it could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider raising interest rates, which would pressure gold prices lower due to the higher cost of holding gold.
• US Dollar Index (USDX) (November 12): If the US dollar strengthens, gold, which is traded in dollars, may face downward pressure. On the other hand, if the dollar weakens, gold prices could rise as the metal becomes cheaper in other currencies.
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (November 13): The CPI is a key inflation indicator. If inflation rises, it would increase the chances of the Fed raising interest rates, which could pressure gold prices. However, if the CPI is lower than expected, gold prices may increase due to a weaker dollar.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (November 14): If the number of jobless claims is higher than expected, it could signal a weaker labor market in the US, leading to a weaker dollar and providing support for gold prices.
• US Manufacturing Index (November 14): If the manufacturing index comes out weaker than expected, it could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and exert downward pressure on the dollar.
• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November 15): If consumer sentiment exceeds expectations, it would be a positive sign for the US economy and could lead to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. However, if sentiment falls short of expectations, the dollar may weaken, providing support for gold prices.

Teknikal Analysis

Gold prices have experienced a sharp decline following the election results, which led traders to ease their concerns and take profits, causing the price to pull back.

However, the price has not yet shown clear signs of a trend reversal towards a downtrend. It is recommended to wait for clear Price Action signals before making any trading decisions, as there is a possibility the price could either continue rising or decline sharply. Caution in decision-making is crucial during this period.

Disclaimer: Ang artikulong ito ay isang pagsusuri lamang mula sa coach sa RoboAcademy at hindi nilayon bilang payo sa pamumuhunan sa anumang paraan. Mapanganib ang pamumuhunan. Dapat pag-aralan ng mga namumuhunan ang impormasyon bago gumawa ng mga desisyon sa pamumuhunan.