Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 17 – 21 March 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the third week of March, from 17 – 21 March 2025.

EUR/USD “ยูโร เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ EUR/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจยุโรป

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March 18): An increase in this index indicates a more positive outlook from German businesses, which could support EUR/USD.
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March 18): A higher reading reflects improving economic prospects in the Eurozone, which would be positive for the euro.
• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March 19): If inflation exceeds the ECB’s target, the central bank may lean toward raising interest rates, which would be bullish for the euro.

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ

• U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index (March 17): A decline in this index signals a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing, which could pressure the USD and support EUR/USD.
• U.S. Core Retail Sales (March 17): A lower-than-expected reading may negatively impact the U.S. dollar and provide support for the euro.
• U.S. Retail Sales (March 17): A drop in retail sales reflects weaker consumer demand, which could prompt the Fed to slow down rate hikes, benefiting EUR/USD.
• U.S. Building Permits (March 18): A higher-than-expected figure indicates a strong U.S. economy and may support the USD.
• U.S. Existing Home Sales (March 19): An increase in home sales suggests economic strength in the U.S., which could pressure EUR/USD.
• FOMC Meeting (March 19): A hawkish stance from the Fed may strengthen the USD and weigh on EUR/USD, while a dovish signal could boost the euro. The expected interest rate stands at 4.50%.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 20): A rise in jobless claims may indicate labor market weakness, potentially pressuring the USD. The forecast is 220,000 claims.
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March 20): A decline in this index signals a manufacturing slowdown, which could be negative for the USD.
• U.S. Leading Economic Index (March 21): A drop in this index suggests economic weakness, which may weigh on the USD and support EUR/USD.

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

The price is currently in an uptrend. It is recommended to wait and see if EUR/USD tests the support zone at 1.07700-1.07500. If the price holds above this level, a Buy position may be considered, as there is potential for further upside, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio. However, this week contains key economic events that could impact market volatility, so close monitoring is advised.

GBP/USD “ปอนด์อังกฤษ เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ EUR/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหราชอาณาจักร

• U.K. Unemployment Rate (March 18): A decline in the unemployment rate could be positive for the GBP, with the forecast at 4.1%.
• U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March 19): Higher inflation may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish stance, which would be supportive of the GBP.

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ

• U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index (March 17): A decline in the index would indicate weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector, potentially pressuring the USD and supporting GBP/USD.
• U.S. Core Retail Sales (March 17): A drop in retail sales suggests slowing consumer spending, which could weigh on the USD.
• U.S. Retail Sales (March 17): Weak retail sales figures may support GBP/USD.
• U.S. Building Permits (March 18): If the data comes in higher than expected, it could strengthen the USD and put pressure on GBP/USD.
• FOMC Meeting (March 19): A hawkish stance from the Fed could boost the USD and weigh on GBP/USD, with the interest rate forecast at 4.50%.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 20): If jobless claims rise above the forecasted 220,000, it may signal labor market weakness, which could negatively impact the USD.
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March 20): A decline in the index could be a bearish signal for the USD, potentially supporting GBP/USD.
• U.S. Leading Economic Index (March 21): A drop in this index may signal economic recession risks, which could weigh on the USD and benefit GBP/USD.

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

The price is currently in an uptrend but is facing a key resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see if the price retraces to test the support zone at 1.28700-1.28500. If the price holds above this zone without breaking below, a Buy entry could be considered, anticipating a continuation of the upward movement.

XAU/USD “ทองคำ เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ XAU/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจที่ส่งผลต่อทองคำ

• U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index (March 17): A decline in this index would indicate a weakening manufacturing sector, which could put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and support the price of gold.
• U.S. Core Retail Sales (March 17): A decrease in core retail sales would signal slower consumer spending, which could negatively impact the USD and be positive for gold.
• U.K. Unemployment Rate (March 18): A decrease in the unemployment rate could increase confidence in the GBP, putting slight pressure on gold prices. The forecast is 4.1%.
• U.S. Building Permits (March 18): Weaker data could indicate a slowdown in the real estate sector, potentially weakening the USD and providing a bullish signal for gold.
• U.K. CPI (March 19): If inflation rises, it may prompt the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy, which could put downward pressure on gold.
  FOMC Meeting (March 19): This will be the key event of the week. A dovish Fed outlook could support gold, while a hawkish stance might put pressure on the metal. The expected interest rate is 4.50%.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 20): If claims rise, it could indicate a weakening U.S. economy, which might support gold prices. The forecast is 220,000 claims.
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March 20): A lower-than-expected reading could be negative for the USD and provide upward momentum for gold.
• U.S. Leading Economic Index (March 21): A decline in this index could signal a potential economic downturn, which may trigger buying interest in gold.

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

Currently, gold is making new all-time highs (ATH) continuously, with the latest resistance at 3,005. It may be a good idea to wait for a pullback before looking for a buying opportunity (Buy). However, gold could pull back to test the support at 2,950, which was the previous resistance that has now been broken. Therefore, if planning to trade on the Buy side, it’s important to remain cautious and use a stop-loss (SL) to manage risk at all times.

Disclaimer: บทความนี้เป็นเพียงการวิเคราะห์จากโค้ชของสถาบัน RoboAcademy ไม่ได้เป็นการชี้นำการลงทุนแต่อย่างใด และการลงทุนมีความเสี่ยง ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลก่อนการตัดสินใจลงทุน