Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 10 – 14 March 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the second week of March, from 10 – 14 March 2025.

EUR/USD “ยูโร เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ EUR/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจยุโรป

• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (March 10): If the figure comes in higher than expected, it could support the euro as it reflects improved economic sentiment. The forecast is -5.2.
• Germany Final CPI (March 12): If inflation comes in lower than expected, it could pressure the ECB to maintain low interest rates, which would be negative for the euro. The forecast is 2.5% YoY.
• ECB Meeting (March 13): If the ECB signals monetary easing or hints at future rate cuts, it could be a bearish factor for EUR/USD. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00%.
• Eurozone CPI (March 14): If inflation comes in lower than expected, it could weigh on the euro. The forecast stands at 2.6% YoY.

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ

• U.S. PPI (March 12): If the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) comes in higher than expected, it could support the dollar and pressure EUR/USD. The forecast is 0.3% MoM.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 13): If jobless claims are higher than expected, it could weigh on the dollar and support EUR/USD. The forecast is 220 K.
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March 14): If the index comes in lower than expected, it could have a positive impact on EUR/USD. The forecast is 79.5.

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

The price has broken above the 1.05630 resistance level and moved up to test a new resistance around 1.09000 before slightly pulling back.

It is recommended to wait for a retracement to the Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 support zone at 1.06250 – 1.06870 and observe price action. If a clear reversal signal appears, consider entering a Buy position.

GBP/USD “ปอนด์อังกฤษ เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ EUR/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหราชอาณาจักร

• U.K. GDP (March 10): If GDP growth exceeds expectations, it could be a positive factor for the pound. The forecast is 0.2% MoM.
• U.K. Industrial Production (March 10): Stronger-than-expected industrial production data may support GBP/USD. The forecast is 0.4% MoM.
• U.K. CPI (March 12): If inflation comes in lower than expected, it could weigh on GBP/USD as it may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to slow down rate hikes. The forecast is 3.2% YoY.
• BoE Interest Rate Decision (March 13): If the BoE signals a pause in rate hikes or hints at future rate cuts, it could pressure the pound. The forecast is for the interest rate to remain at 5.25%.

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ

• U.S. PPI (March 12): If the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) comes in higher than expected, it could support the dollar and pressure GBP/USD. The forecast is 0.3% MoM.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 13): Higher-than-expected jobless claims could support GBP/USD. The forecast is 220 K.
• U.S. CPI (March 14): If U.S. inflation comes in higher than expected, it could be negative for GBP/USD. The forecast is 3.1% YoY.
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March 14): If the consumer sentiment index comes in lower than expected, it could be positive for GBP/USD. The forecast is 79.5.

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

The price continues to move upward in line with the ongoing uptrend and remains above the trend line. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to test the Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 support zone. If a clear reversal signal or a confirmed Buy Price Action appears in this zone, consider entering a trade (Buy) to take advantage of a lower-risk entry with higher profit potential.

XAU/USD “ทองคำ เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ XAU/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจที่ส่งผลต่อทองคำ

• U.K. GDP (March 10): If the U.K. GDP exceeds expectations, it may boost confidence in the stock market and reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• U.S. Treasury Yield (March 10): If U.S. Treasury yields rise, it could put downward pressure on gold prices as investors may prefer assets offering higher returns.
• U.S. PPI (March 12): If PPI comes in higher than expected, it may pressure gold prices as the Fed could maintain a tighter monetary policy. The forecast is 0.3% MoM.
• U.S. CPI (March 12): If CPI comes in lower than expected, it may support gold prices as the Fed may consider cutting rates sooner. The forecast is 3.1% YoY.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 13): If initial jobless claims increase, it could be a positive factor for gold, signaling economic weakness. The forecast is 220 K.
• ECB Meeting (March 13): If the ECB signals rate cuts, it may negatively affect the euro and strengthen the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March 14): If the figure comes in lower than expected, it may support gold prices, reflecting reduced consumer confidence. The forecast is 79.5.

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

Currently, the price is moving within a large sideways range between 2,850 and 2,960. At present, the price is in the middle of this range. It is recommended to wait for the price to test either the support or resistance levels before making any decisions. Observe the direction clearly, as opening orders while the price is in the middle of the range carries the risk of the price moving in either direction.

Disclaimer: บทความนี้เป็นเพียงการวิเคราะห์จากโค้ชของสถาบัน RoboAcademy ไม่ได้เป็นการชี้นำการลงทุนแต่อย่างใด และการลงทุนมีความเสี่ยง ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลก่อนการตัดสินใจลงทุน