Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 24 – 28 February 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the last week of February, from 24 – 28 February 2025.

EUR/USD “ยูโร เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ EUR/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจยุโรป

  • Germany IFO Business Climate Index (24th February): If the index comes out strong, it indicates improved business confidence in Germany, which could support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If the number is lower than expected, it may reflect an economic slowdown in Germany, putting pressure on the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (25th February): If the number is high, it indicates improved consumer confidence, which could support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If the number is low, it shows concerns about the economy, which may pressure the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).
  • Germany CPI (26th February): If inflation in Germany remains high, it could increase pressure on the ECB to maintain a tight monetary policy, which could be positive for the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If the CPI decreases, the ECB may lean toward cutting interest rates sooner, which could pressure the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).
  • Eurozone CPI (27th February): If inflation exceeds expectations, it may cause the ECB to keep interest rates high, potentially supporting the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If inflation slows down, it could increase the likelihood of the ECB cutting interest rates sooner, which may be negative for the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (28th February): If the number is high, it shows a recovery in the industrial sector in Europe, which could support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If the number is low, it may reflect an economic slowdown in the Eurozone, which could be negative for the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ

  • U.S. New Home Sales (25th February): If home sales come out strong, it indicates the strength of the U.S. economy, which could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD (Bearish EUR/USD). If the number is low, it may raise concerns about the U.S. economy and support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD).
  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders (26th February): If orders exceed expectations, it may reflect growth in the U.S. industrial sector, which could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD (Bearish EUR/USD). If the number is low, it could signal a slowdown in the U.S. economy and support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD).
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (27th February): If the number is low, it indicates a strong U.S. labor market, which could be positive for the U.S. dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD (Bearish EUR/USD). If the number is high, it may reflect a slowdown in the labor market and be positive for the euro (Bullish EUR/USD).
  • U.S. 4Q24 GDP (28th February): If GDP exceeds expectations, it suggests a strong U.S. economy, which could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD (Bearish EUR/USD). If GDP is lower than expected, it may raise concerns about the economy and help support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD).

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

The price has risen to test the key resistance level at 1.05500 and has been rejected. It is expected to move within the same large sideways range as before. There is a possibility that the price may retrace to test the minor support at 1.04200 again. It is recommended to watch for Buy-side Price Action signals in this zone to consider opening a Buy position and hope for the price to break the resistance and continue upward.

GBP/USD “ปอนด์อังกฤษ เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ GBP/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหราชอาณาจักร

  • U.K. Consumer Confidence Index (GfK) (February 25): If the figure is high, it indicates improved economic confidence, which could support the British pound (Bullish GBP/USD). If the figure is low, it could reflect a weak economy and put pressure on the pound (Bearish GBP/USD).
  • U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February 26): If inflation is high, it may lead to the Bank of England (BoE) maintaining high interest rates, which would be bullish for the GBP (Bullish GBP/USD). If inflation decreases, it could increase the chances of the BoE cutting interest rates, which would be bearish for the GBP (Bearish GBP/USD).
  • U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February 27): If inflation remains high, it may add pressure for the BoE to keep interest rates high, which is positive for the GBP (Bullish GBP/USD). If inflation drops, it could boost the likelihood of rate cuts by the BoE, which is negative for the GBP (Bearish GBP/USD).
  • U.K. Manufacturing PMI (February 28): If the figure is high, it indicates a strong manufacturing sector, which would be supportive for the GBP (Bullish GBP/USD). If the figure is low, it could reflect a weak economy and put pressure on the pound (Bearish GBP/USD).

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ

  • U.S. New Home Sales (February 25): If the figure is high, it indicates strength in the U.S. real estate market, which could support the U.S. dollar and pressure GBP/USD (Bearish GBP/USD). If the figure is low, it could reflect a slowdown in the U.S. economy and support the British pound (Bullish GBP/USD).
  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders (February 26): If the figure is high, it suggests strength in the U.S. economy, which could support the U.S. dollar and pressure GBP/USD (Bearish GBP/USD). If the figure is low, it may signal an economic slowdown in the U.S. and be positive for GBP/USD (Bullish GBP/USD).
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 27): If the figure is low, it indicates a strong U.S. labor market, which would be positive for the U.S. dollar and pressure GBP/USD (Bearish GBP/USD). If the figure is high, it may suggest weakness in the labor market, which could support GBP/USD (Bullish GBP/USD).
  • U.S. 4Q24 GDP (February 28): If the GDP figure is high, it would reflect a strong U.S. economy, which could support the U.S. dollar and pressure GBP/USD (Bearish GBP/USD). If the GDP figure is lower than expected, it could indicate a slowdown in the U.S. economy and support the British pound (Bullish GBP/USD).

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

The price is moving up along the upward trend line, but it is expected to pull back and test the support around 1.25500 before continuing its upward movement.

It is recommended to wait for a clear Buy signal in this zone or near the trend line and look for an opportunity to enter a Buy order in anticipation of further upward movement.

XAU/USD “ทองคำ เทียบกับ ดอลลาร์สหรัฐ”

การวิเคราะห์ขั้นพื้นฐาน

เหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญที่มีผลกระทบต่อ XAU/USD ในสัปดาห์นี้

ข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจที่ส่งผลต่อทองคำ

  • Germany IFO Business Climate (February 24): If the data is strong, it may reflect a strong economic outlook for Europe, leading investors to reduce their demand for gold (Bearish XAU/USD). If the data is weak, it could raise concerns about the Eurozone economy, potentially boosting gold prices (Bullish XAU/USD).
  • U.S. New Home Sales (February 25): If the data is high, it may indicate a strong economy, which could be negative for gold (Bearish XAU/USD). If the data is low, it could increase concerns about the economy and support gold prices (Bullish XAU/USD).
  • Germany CPI (February 26): If inflation data is high, it may indicate inflationary pressures in Europe, which could increase the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation (Bullish XAU/USD).
  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders (February 26): If the data is high, it may support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on gold prices (Bearish XAU/USD). If the data is low, it may indicate a weakening U.S. economy and support gold prices (Bullish XAU/USD).
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 27): If the data is low, it suggests a strong labor market in the U.S., which could support the dollar and pressure gold prices (Bearish XAU/USD). If the data is high, it could indicate a weak labor market and support gold prices (Bullish XAU/USD).
  • Eurozone CPI (February 27): If inflation is higher than expected, it may raise concerns about inflation and increase demand for gold (Bullish XAU/USD).
  • U.S. 4Q24 GDP (February 28): If GDP is strong, it may indicate the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high, which is negative for gold (Bearish XAU/USD). If GDP is lower than expected, it may increase the chance of the Fed lowering interest rates, which is positive for gold (Bullish XAU/USD).
  • U.S. Manufacturing PMI (February 28): If the data is high, it could be positive for the dollar and put pressure on gold prices (Bearish XAU/USD). If the data is low, it may indicate a weak economy and support gold prices (Bullish XAU/USD).

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

The price is currently consolidating within the 2920-2960 range and seems likely to continue moving upwards. It is recommended to focus on Buy positions in smaller timeframes. The price may test the support at 2920 again, so if it reaches this zone, look for clear Price Action signals to enter a Buy. However, caution is needed as there could be selling pressure that may push the price down to the 2880-2860 range as well.

Disclaimer: บทความนี้เป็นเพียงการวิเคราะห์จากโค้ชของสถาบัน RoboAcademy ไม่ได้เป็นการชี้นำการลงทุนแต่อย่างใด และการลงทุนมีความเสี่ยง ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลก่อนการตัดสินใจลงทุน

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