Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 31 March – 4 April 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the last week of March and the first week of April, from 31 March – 4 April 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone GDP Q4 (March 31): If the Eurozone GDP comes in lower than expected, it may result in a weaker EUR/USD, reflecting a slowdown in the European economy. On the other hand, if the GDP beats expectations, it could support a stronger euro. The forecast is 0.1% QoQ and 0.5% YoY.
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (April 1): If the Manufacturing PMI comes in lower than expected, it could signal ongoing weakness in the European economy, putting pressure on the EUR/USD. A better-than-expected result might support the euro. The forecast is 46.8.
• Eurozone PPI (April 2): If the PPI comes in lower than expected, it may indicate continued inflation slowdown in the Eurozone, potentially leading the ECB to maintain interest rates, which could weaken the EUR/USD. The forecast is -0.2% MoM and -3.1% YoY.
• Eurozone CPI (April 3): If the CPI comes in lower than expected, the ECB may face less pressure to hike interest rates, which could weaken the EUR/USD. A higher-than-expected CPI could support the euro. The forecast is 2.5% YoY.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (March 31): The Core PCE is a key inflation measure used by the Fed. If the number comes in higher than expected, it could signal that the Fed may need to keep interest rates elevated, strengthening the USD and putting pressure on the EUR/USD. Conversely, if the number is lower than expected, the USD might weaken, and the EUR/USD could rise. The forecast is 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (April 1): If the PMI comes in higher than expected, it may indicate a strong U.S. economy, causing the USD to appreciate and pressuring the EUR/USD to move lower. If the result is lower than expected, it could support the euro. The forecast is 48.5.
• U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (April 2): A strong employment report could lead the Fed to maintain high interest rates, strengthening the USD and pushing EUR/USD lower. If the report is weaker than expected, the USD could weaken, supporting the EUR/USD. The forecast is 180K.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (April 3): If the PMI is higher than expected, it could signal continued U.S. economic strength, resulting in a stronger USD and a lower EUR/USD. A weaker-than-expected number may support the euro. The forecast is 52.0.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (April 4): A strong NFP report may lead to expectations of the Fed keeping interest rates high, strengthening the USD and pushing the EUR/USD lower. If the number comes in lower than expected, it may support the euro. The forecast is 200K.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (April 4): A low unemployment rate may signal economic strength, causing the USD to appreciate. If the unemployment rate is higher than expected, it could be negative for the U.S. economy and help push the EUR/USD higher. The forecast is 3.8%.

Technical Analysis

The price has corrected to test the Fibonacci 0.618 zone and was able to bounce back, but currently, it has not closed above the Fibonacci 0.786 level.

If the price fails to stay above this level this week, there is a chance it could retrace further to test the Fibonacci 0.50 zone around 1.06560.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. GDP Q4 2024 (March 31): If the GDP comes in lower than expected, it may pressure the British pound, leading to a weaker GBP/USD. However, a stronger-than-expected result could support the GBP/USD. The forecast is 0.2% QoQ and 0.6% YoY.
• U.K. Manufacturing PMI (April 1): If the PMI is lower than expected, it could signal a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, potentially putting pressure on the GBP/USD. A better-than-expected result could help support the British pound. The forecast is 49.5.
• U.K. PPI (April 2): If the PPI comes in lower than expected, the Bank of England (BoE) may face less pressure to hike interest rates, which could weaken the GBP/USD. The forecast is -0.1% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
• U.K. CPI (April 3): If the CPI is lower than expected, the BoE may have less incentive to raise interest rates, which could lead to a weaker GBP/USD. A higher-than-expected CPI could support the GBP/USD. The forecast is 2.7% YoY.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (March 31): If the number comes in high, the Fed may maintain higher interest rates, which could strengthen the USD and cause GBP/USD to weaken. If it comes in lower than expected, it could support GBP/USD. The forecast is 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (April 1): If the number is high, it could strengthen the USD and put pressure on GBP/USD. A lower-than-expected result could cause GBP/USD to rise. The forecast is 48.5.
• U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (April 2): If the employment numbers are strong, the Fed may keep interest rates high, which would strengthen the USD and weaken GBP/USD. A lower-than-expected result could support GBP/USD. The forecast is 180K.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (April 3): If the number is high, it could strengthen the USD and cause GBP/USD to weaken. If it comes in lower than expected, GBP/USD could rise. The forecast is 52.0.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (April 4): If the number is high, the USD may strengthen, causing GBP/USD to weaken. If it comes in lower than expected, GBP/USD could rise. The forecast is 200K.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (April 4): A low unemployment rate could strengthen the USD. If the rate is higher than expected, GBP/USD may rise. The forecast is 3.8%.

Technical Analysis

The overall trend remains bullish, but currently, the price is in a consolidation phase and moving sideways. You can consider opening a Buy order at the support level within the price range and the upward trendline around the 1.28500 zone. Alternatively, if the price rises to the resistance level near 1.30000 and a Price Action signal for a Sell appears, you could also consider opening a Sell order, aiming for a potential pullback.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (March 31): If the figure comes in lower than expected, the Fed may lean towards lowering interest rates, leading to a weaker USD and a potential rise in gold prices. Conversely, if the number is higher than expected, the Fed may maintain high interest rates, strengthening the USD and putting downward pressure on gold prices. The forecast is 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (April 1): If the figure comes in lower than expected, reflecting an economic slowdown, the Fed may ease its policy, which would be positive for gold prices. However, if the number exceeds expectations, the USD will likely strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices. The forecast is 48.5.
• U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (April 2): If the figure comes in lower than expected, it may signal a weakening labor market, suggesting the Fed could lower interest rates, which would support higher gold prices. On the other hand, if the number exceeds expectations, the stronger USD would put downward pressure on gold prices. The forecast is 180K.
• U.K. PPI (April 2): If the PPI decreases significantly, it may indicate slowing inflation, potentially prompting the Fed to ease its policy, which could support higher gold prices. The forecast is -0.1% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
• U.K. CPI (April 3): If the figure is higher than expected, inflation concerns may rise, driving investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. The forecast is 2.7% YoY.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (April 3): If the figure is high, the USD will strengthen, which may pressure gold prices to fall. However, if it comes in lower than expected, it will be a supportive factor for gold prices. The forecast is 52.0.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (April 4): If the figure is lower than expected, the market may anticipate that the Fed will reduce interest rates sooner, causing the USD to weaken and supporting gold prices. However, if the number exceeds expectations, the Fed may keep interest rates high, strengthening the USD and putting downward pressure on gold prices. The forecast is 200K.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (April 4): A higher unemployment rate could support gold prices, while a decrease in the unemployment rate may strengthen the USD and pressure gold prices. The forecast is 3.8%.

Technical Analysis

The price continues to move at the All-Time High (ATH) level, with the next psychological resistance at around 3100. An interesting strategy is to wait for the price to pull back and test the support zone at 3050–3065 before opening a Buy order, aiming for a potential rebound. This approach offers a higher probability of profit.

However, there is still the risk that the price may pull back further and test the next support level around 3000. Therefore, caution is advised during this period, as the continuous rise in prices may lead to consolidation or intense selling pressure.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.