Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the last week of December and the first week of January, from 30 December 2024 – 3 January 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European and U.S. Economic Data:

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (30 December): If the figure comes in better than expected, it could support the euro. However, if it falls short of expectations, it may cause the euro to weaken.
• U.S. Pending Home Sales (30 December): Strong numbers may help support the dollar, but if the figure is weaker than expected, it could put pressure on the dollar.
• Markets in parts of Europe and the U.S. will be closed for New Year’s Eve (31 December): Volatility may increase due to lighter market trading.
• Markets will be closed for New Year’s Day (1 January): No major economic movements are expected.
• Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI (2 January): If the figure reflects economic recovery, it could support the euro.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (2 January): If the figure is lower than expected, it could support the dollar, while a higher number could pressure the dollar.
• Germany Retail Sales (3 January): If the numbers reflect strong consumer activity in Germany, the euro may gain support.
• U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI (3 January): A figure higher than expected may strengthen the dollar, while a weaker number could increase downward pressure on the dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price continues to move within the same zone as analyzed last week, with relatively low volatility due to the year-end period and the upcoming New Year. I still recommend a Sell strategy at the price level of 1.04600, targeting a test of the support at 1.03400.

However, it is advisable to avoid holding positions across the year, as there may be high volatility and an increased risk of losses. Please trade cautiously during this period.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. and U.S. Economic Data:

• U.K. Nationwide HPI (30 December): A higher-than-expected figure may support the British pound, as it reflects the strength of the UK housing market.
• U.S. Pending Home Sales (30 December): Strong numbers could support the U.S. dollar, while weaker figures may exert pressure on the dollar.
• Market Closures in the U.K. and U.S. for Year-End (31 December): Volatility may increase due to reduced market activity.
• Market Closed for New Year’s Day (1 January): No significant economic data or events.
• U.K. Final Manufacturing PMI (2 January): A stronger-than-expected figure could boost the pound, reflecting a recovery in the manufacturing sector.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (2 January): Lower-than-expected claims could strengthen the U.S. dollar, while higher claims may weigh on the dollar.
• U.K. Mortgage Approvals (3 January): A higher-than-expected number could provide additional support to the pound.
• U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI (3 January): A strong reading could strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially putting pressure on the GBP, but weaker-than-expected numbers could support GBP/USD.

Technical Analysis

The price continues to move as analyzed in the previous week and remains within the same price zone. It is still recommended to sell, hoping for the price to test the support level at 1.24700.

However, it is advisable to avoid holding orders across the year-end due to potential high volatility, which could lead to an increased risk of loss. Trade with caution during this period.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (30 December): If the figures come in lower than expected, it may boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, if the figures are better than expected, investors may shift focus towards riskier assets.
• U.S. Pending Home Sales (30 December): Strong figures could reflect a recovering U.S. economy, potentially supporting the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold prices.
• Partial market closures in the UK and U.S. for the year-end (31 December): Volatility may increase due to reduced market activity.
• Market closure for New Year’s Day (1 January): No significant economic data or events are expected.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (2 January): Higher-than-expected figures may raise concerns about the labor market, potentially supporting gold prices as a safe-haven asset. Conversely, lower-than-expected figures could put pressure on gold.
• Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI (2 January): If the data indicates economic recovery in Europe, demand for gold may decrease.
• Germany Retail Sales (3 January): Strong retail sales data could suggest a robust German economy, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI (3 January): Strong data could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on gold prices, while weaker-than-expected figures may provide support for gold.

Technical Analysis

Last week, gold tested the resistance level at 2638-2640 and faced rejection, resulting in a potential opportunity to consider a Sell position with the aim of testing the support level at 2580.

However, trading gold during the New Year period requires more caution than trading currencies due to the possibility of increased volatility. It is advisable not to hold positions across the year-end as it could lead to high volatility and increased risk of losses. Proper management of capital and trading positions is crucial to mitigate risk.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.