Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 3 – 7 March 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the first week of March, from 3 – 7 March 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (March 3): If the index comes in lower than expected, it could negatively impact the euro, as it reflects a contraction in the manufacturing sector.
• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March 3): If the CPI is higher than expected, it could signal rising inflation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider a tighter monetary policy.
• Eurozone Services PMI (March 5): A PMI reading higher than expected could have a positive effect on the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (March 3): If the index is higher than expected, it could positively impact the U.S. dollar, as it reflects expansion in the manufacturing sector.
• U.S. ADP Employment Report (March 5): A higher-than-expected figure would support the U.S. dollar, as it indicates a strong labor market.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 6): A lower-than-expected number could support the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (March 7): If the figure is lower than expected, it could put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (March 7): If the unemployment rate increases, it could negatively impact the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price is currently moving within a sideways range and recently tested the key resistance level around 1.05300, before being clearly rejected. It is recommended to wait for a Buy opportunity if there is a clear price action signal around the support zone at 1.03300 – 1.02800. However, if the price drops below 1.02600, it would be wise to stay on the sidelines and reassess the situation. The next key support level is at 1.02300, which could be a potential zone for another Buy entry.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Manufacturing PMI (February 3): If the index comes in lower than expected, it could negatively impact the British pound, as it reflects a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector.
• U.K. Services PMI (March 5): A higher-than-expected reading could support the British pound, as the services sector accounts for a significant portion of the U.K. economy.
• U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March 7): If the CPI is higher than expected, it could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to consider a tighter monetary policy, which may have a positive effect on the GBP.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (March 3): A higher-than-expected reading could positively impact the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. ADP Employment Report (March 5): A stronger-than-expected figure could be a bullish factor for the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 6): A lower-than-expected number could support the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (March 7): A weaker-than-expected report could put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (March 7): An increase in the unemployment rate could negatively affect the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price is currently in a minor uptrend, supported by a trend line. However, it recently hit the 1.27100 resistance and was rejected. At the moment, the price is consolidating around the 1.25600 minor support and has not broken below it. If a clear bullish price action emerges around this support level this week, a Buy entry could be considered, aiming for a continuation of the upward move.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (March 3): A higher-than-expected reading could negatively impact gold prices, as it signals economic strength and reduces demand for safe-haven assets.
• U.S. ADP Employment Report (March 5): A lower-than-expected figure could support gold prices, as it may lead the Fed to slow down interest rate hikes.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (March 3): A weaker-than-expected reading could be a bullish factor for gold.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 6): A higher-than-expected number could support gold prices, as it indicates a weakening labor market.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (March 7): An increase in unemployment could push gold prices higher.
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (March 7): If wages rise more than expected, it could be a bearish factor for gold.

Technical Analysis

The price has dropped sharply in the style of “Nong Thong, the troublemaker,” sweeping away Buy orders before establishing a support base at 2830 and then rebounding, leaving a wick behind. It is recommended that you wait and observe the price direction first. The price is expected to have a chance to rebound due to the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine, as well as Donald Trump’s statement regarding the risk of World War III, which directly impacts gold prices. It is advised to place Buy orders in smaller time frames, and if the price drops below 2830, cut losses and wait for a new opportunity before entering another trade.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.