Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 3 – 7 February 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the first week of February, from 3 – 7 February 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (February 3): A stronger-than-expected reading could support the euro, while a weaker-than-expected result may put pressure on the euro against the dollar.
• Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (February 4): A higher-than-expected figure may reflect increased inflationary pressure, which could be a positive factor for the euro.
• Eurozone Retail Sales (February 5): A strong retail sales report could support the euro, while a weaker-than-expected figure may weigh on the EUR/USD pair.
• European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting (February 6): If the ECB signals a more hawkish monetary policy stance, it could provide support for the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (February 3): A higher-than-expected reading could support the dollar and pressure the EUR/USD pair.
• U.S. Factory Orders (February 4): A better-than-expected figure could strengthen the dollar and weigh on EUR/USD.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (February 5): A strong reading may boost the dollar and put downward pressure on EUR/USD.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 6): A lower-than-expected figure could support the dollar and negatively impact EUR/USD.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (February 7): A strong jobs report could bolster the dollar and weigh on EUR/USD, while a weaker-than-expected result may help the euro appreciate.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (February 7): A decline in the unemployment rate could further strengthen the dollar and negatively affect EUR/USD.

Technical Analysis

The price tested the key resistance level at 1.05350 but failed to break through. Over the past week, there has been a continuous downtrend. It is recommended that sales opportunities be looked for in smaller timeframes, with the aim of a potential move toward the major support level at 1.02300.

However, be cautious of reversal signals. If buying pressure emerges, the price could rebound and shift into a Buy trend. Therefore, it is essential to monitor price behavior carefully before making any trading decisions.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Manufacturing PMI (February 3): A stronger-than-expected reading could support the pound, while a weaker-than-expected figure may put pressure on GBP/USD.
• U.K. Nationwide House Price Index (February 4): A strong figure could support the pound, as it reflects the strength of the real estate sector.
• U.K. Services PMI (February 5): A solid reading could strengthen the pound, while a weaker-than-expected result may negatively impact GBP/USD.
• Bank of England (BoE) Meeting (February 6): If the BoE signals a rate hike or adopts a hawkish stance, it could support the pound. However, if the central bank takes a dovish approach, it may put pressure on GBP/USD.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (February 3): A higher-than-expected reading could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on GBP/USD.
• U.S. Factory Orders (February 4): A stronger-than-expected figure may boost the dollar and weigh on GBP/USD.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (February 5): A solid reading could strengthen the dollar, leading to downside pressure on GBP/USD.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 6): A lower-than-expected number may support the dollar and negatively impact GBP/USD.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report (February 7): A strong NFP figure could boost the dollar and weigh on GBP/USD, while a weaker-than-expected result might support the pound.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (February 7): A lower unemployment rate may strengthen the dollar and put pressure on GBP/USD.

Technical Analysis

The price moved up to test the key resistance at 1.25200 before pulling back. Currently, it is consolidating around the support level near 1.23700. If the price does not decline further and a Buy signal appears in the support zone, a Buy position could be considered to capture a potential reversal opportunity.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (February 3): If the numbers come in stronger than expected, it may support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on gold prices, but if the numbers are weaker than expected, it could support gold.
• Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (February 4): If the numbers are high, it may reflect inflationary pressures, which could support gold prices.
• U.S. Factory Orders (February 4): A better-than-expected number could strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on gold prices.
• Eurozone Retail Sales (February 5): Strong numbers may reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (February 5): A higher-than-expected number could support the dollar and negatively affect gold prices.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 6): If the number comes in lower than expected, it may support the dollar and put pressure on gold prices.
• Federal Reserve Speech (February 6): Any signal of additional rate hikes could negatively affect gold prices.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (February 7): Strong numbers may support the dollar and weigh on gold prices, but weaker-than-expected numbers could help gold prices rise.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (February 7): A decrease in the unemployment rate could be positive for the dollar and put downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

The price surged to a new all-time high (ATH) once again but encountered psychological resistance at the 2817-2820 zone, then retraced back to the previous resistance level. This could be a potential “sweep” trap. If the price can hold above 2790, a Buy position could be considered, but caution is advised for possible strong selling pressure.

Additionally, on Friday, February 7, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and U.S. employment report will be released. If the results are better than expected, they may pressure gold prices to move back toward the lower range. It’s important to closely monitor price direction throughout the week.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.