Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 29 July – 2 August 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the last week of July and the first week of August, from 29 July – 2 August 2024, 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• GDP Growth Rate: Preliminary GDP data for Q2 will be announced. If the GDP exceeds expectations, it may support the euro. Conversely, if the data is poor, it may exert downward pressure.
• Inflation Data (CPI): The inflation figures for the Eurozone are essential as they can influence the ECB’s policy direction. If inflation rises, there might be expectations for a rate hike, which would be positive for the euro.
• Unemployment Rate: This indicator can reflect the health of the labor market in the Eurozone. If the unemployment rate decreases, it could positively impact the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): This is a key indicator that reflects the health of the U.S. labor market. If the NFP report is strong, it may support the dollar. Conversely, if the report is weak, it may weaken the dollar.
• Federal Reserve Statements: Any statements or signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate hikes or economic outlook can impact the dollar.
• Inflation Data (CPI and PPI): U.S. inflation figures are essential as they can influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

Technical Analysis

TF Day has retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which is an important price zone, and currently, it has rebounded. Wait for a confirmation buy signal. However, the price may retrace to test the support again at around 1.08070. You may wait for a good buying opportunity here and place a short-stop loss (SL). If the price falls below this level, it may indicate that the price could continue to decline.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• GDP Growth Rate: Preliminary GDP data for Q2 will be a key indicator of the economic health of the United Kingdom. Strong growth may support the pound, while weaker-than-expected data may cause the pound to depreciate.
• Inflation Data (CPI): The Consumer Price Index will provide information on inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom. Higher inflation may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, which could support the pound.
• Unemployment Rate: This indicator will give an overview of the labor market in the United Kingdom. A declining unemployment rate may have a positive impact on the pound.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): This is a key indicator of the U.S. labor market. Strong NFP data may cause the USD to appreciate, while weaker data may lead to USD depreciation.
• Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Any statements or signals from the Fed regarding future interest rate decisions will be closely monitored, as they can influence the USD.
• Inflation Data (CPI and PPI): U.S. inflation data is crucial for understanding potential changes in Fed policy.

Technical Analysis

When measuring the swing with Fibonacci, it is evident that the price could not hold at the 0.618 zone and is heading to test the 0.50 zone at approximately 1.28287. The price might also rebound from this level. You could consider entering a short-sell trade to test the significantly lower price zone. However, caution is advised as the short-term trend is still upward. If a buy-side price action confirmation appears, you may take profit (TP) and switch to a buy trade.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): This is a key employment indicator in the U.S. A strong NFP report may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which can strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on gold prices.
• Inflation Data (CPI and PPI): Inflation readings are important as they impact Fed policy. Higher inflation may support gold as a hedge against inflation, while lower inflation may weaken gold.
• GDP Growth Rate: Preliminary GDP data for Q2 will provide information on the overall economic health of the U.S. Strong GDP growth may strengthen the U.S. dollar, which could negatively impact gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the TF Week, we can see that gold performed a deceptive false breakout, tricking traders into thinking it would reach an all-time high. However, it then adjusted downward sharply throughout the week, leaving a significant wick on the candle. On the TF Day, the price tested the 2350 level, which is a key support. Currently, it is advised not to enter a trade because the price could move either way, up or down. Watch for a sell price action at 2400; if it forms a downward pattern, you can enter a sell position. On the TF Week, the price might test major support around the 2280 zone. Meanwhile, keep an eye on any other news this week that could significantly impact the price movement.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.