Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 24 – 28 March 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the fourth week of March, from 24 – 28 March 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Germany IFO Business Climate Index (March 24): If the index shows an improvement, it could support the euro as it reflects a strong economic outlook for Germany. The forecast is 89.7.
• German Import Price Index (March 25): A significant decrease in import prices could indicate lower inflation in Germany, which may put pressure on the euro.
• Germany CPI (March 26): If inflation comes in lower than expected, it may cause the ECB to hold off on raising interest rates, which could weaken the euro. The forecast is 2.4% YoY.
• Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index (March 27): If the index is higher than expected, it could support the euro as it reflects growth prospects for the economy. The forecast is 95.0.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. New Home Sales (March 24): A decline in home sales could signal a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which may pressure the U.S. dollar and be positive for EUR/USD. The forecast is 650,000 units.
• U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (March 25): A drop in consumer confidence could indicate weaker spending trends, which may negatively impact the U.S. dollar. The forecast is 105.0.
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (March 26): An increase in orders could be positive for the USD and put pressure on EUR/USD. The forecast is 0.6% MoM.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 27): A rise in jobless claims could reflect a weakening labor market and negatively affect the USD. The forecast is 220,000 claims.
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (March 28): This is an inflation gauge that the Fed closely monitors. If it comes in high, it could increase the likelihood of the Fed maintaining tight monetary policy, which may pressure EUR/USD. The forecast is 2.8% YoY.

Technical Analysis

The price has recently pulled back to test the support level at 1.07800. It may be worth waiting to see the price reaction in this zone. If there are Buy signals, you could consider entering a Buy order. The overall trend remains bullish, with the next resistance level at 1.09500, which the price may test further.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Rightmove HPI (March 24): If house prices in the U.K. increase, it could signal a strong property market, which may be positive for GBP.
• U.K. CPI (March 25): If inflation comes in higher than expected, it may increase pressure on the BoE to maintain a tight monetary policy, which could support GBP. The forecast is 3.2% YoY.
• U.K. PPI (March 26): If the index comes in higher than expected, it may indicate that inflation remains elevated, which could lead the BoE to delay interest rate cuts. The forecast is 2.1% YoY.
• U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey (March 27): If the index beats expectations, it could support GBP. The forecast is -7.
• U.K. GDP (March 28): If the GDP number exceeds expectations, it could bolster GBP. The forecast is 0.1% QoQ.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. New Home Sales (March 24): If home sales decrease, it may signal a slowing U.S. economy, which could pressure the U.S. dollar and be positive for GBP/USD. The forecast is 650,000 units.
• U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (March 25): If consumer confidence drops, it could negatively impact the U.S. dollar and be a positive factor for GBP/USD. The forecast is 105.0.
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (March 26): If orders increase, it could be positive for the U.S. dollar and pressure GBP/USD. The forecast is 0.6% MoM.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 27): If claims rise, it may reflect a weakening labor market and be negative for the U.S. dollar. The forecast is 220,000 claims.
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (March 28): If U.S. inflation comes in higher than expected, it may increase pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high, which would be negative for GBP/USD. The forecast is 2.8% YoY.

Technical Analysis

The overall trend for GBP/USD remains bullish, with the trend line acting as the main support. The price is currently testing the support at 1.28600. If the price can hold above this level, a buy order could be considered in anticipation of the price continuing to rise toward the next resistance zone around 1.30000.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• U.S. New Home Sales (March 24): If new home sales decrease, it may indicate a slowdown in the U.S. economy and could support gold prices. The forecast is 650,000 units.
• U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (March 25): If consumer confidence decreases, it may weaken the U.S. dollar and drive gold prices higher. The forecast is 105.0.
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (March 26): If orders increase, it may signal a strong U.S. economy, which could put pressure on gold prices. The forecast is 0.6% MoM.
• U.S. Commodity Price Index (March 26): If commodity prices rise, it may support gold prices.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (March 27): If claims rise, it may indicate weakness in the labor market and be a positive factor for gold. The forecast is 220,000 claims.
• U.S. Final GDP (Q4, March 27): If GDP is higher than expected, it may be negative for gold, but if it comes in lower than expected, gold prices could rise. The forecast is 2.1% QoQ.
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (March 28): If U.S. inflation is lower than expected, it could lead to expectations of Fed rate cuts, which would support gold. The forecast is 2.8% YoY.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (March 28): If the PMI is below 50, it may indicate a slowing economy, which could be positive for gold. The forecast is 49.8.

Technical Analysis

The overall trend for gold remains bullish, but the price has recently retraced to test the support level at 3000. It is important to observe how the price behaves at this level. If the price can hold above this major support zone and show Buy-side Price Action signals, it could be considered a potential Buy entry, with the expectation that the price will move higher. However, caution is advised, as gold may retrace further down to 2950 if this support level fails to hold.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.