Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 20 – 24 January 202

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the fourth week of January, from 20 – 24 January 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (January 20): If the figure improves, it may support the euro. However, if it falls short of expectations, it could pressure the euro against the dollar.
• Eurozone & Germany Manufacturing & Services PMI (January 21): Strong figures may reflect economic recovery in the Eurozone and bolster the euro. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could lead to euro depreciation against the dollar.
• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (January 22): Higher-than-expected figures may support the euro, as Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Dollar Outlook: Investors continue to monitor the dollar’s movements following last week’s inflation data.
• U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMI (January 21): Higher-than-expected figures may support the dollar and pressure the EUR/USD pair.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (January 23): Lower-than-expected claims may bolster the dollar and weigh on the EUR/USD pair.
• U.S. Bond Yield Movements (January 23): Investors will watch the direction of U.S. bond yields, which influence demand for the dollar.
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (January 24): Better-than-expected figures could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro.
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (January 24): Higher-than-expected figures may reflect strong confidence in the U.S. economy, supporting the dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price moved as planned last week, heading downward to test the support zone at 1.02200-1.01800. A Sell strategy is recommended. However, caution is advised: if the price fails to move below this level, it could indicate a potential reversal point for a Buy opportunity.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Rightmove House Price Index (January 20): Higher figures may indicate a recovery in the U.K. housing market and positively affect the pound.
• U.K. Manufacturing & Services PMI (January 21): Better-than-expected figures may support the pound, while weaker-than-expected data could pressure the pound against the dollar.
• Bank of England Inflation Report (January 22): The report’s content may reflect future monetary policy direction. If there are signals of interest rate hikes, it could strengthen the pound.
• U.K. Retail Sales (January 23): Stronger-than-expected retail sales figures may boost the pound.

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Dollar Outlook: The dollar’s strength or weakness on the first day of the week may determine the initial direction for the GBP/USD pair.
• U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMI (January 21): Strong figures may support the dollar and put pressure on GBP/USD.
• U.S. Housing Price Index (January 22): Strong data could strengthen the dollar and weigh on GBP/USD.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (January 23): Lower-than-expected claims may support the dollar and pressure GBP/USD.
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (January 24): Strong figures may put pressure on GBP/USD as they bolster the dollar.
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (January 24): Better-than-expected data may positively impact the dollar and pressure the pound.

Technical Analysis

Over the past week, the price has moved upward but remains in line with the plan, focusing on the Sell side to test the support at 1.20000. However, caution is advised, as this zone could also serve as a potential reversal point for a Buy position. If the price reaches the support and rebounds without breaking through, it could signal a reversal. It’s recommended to closely monitor the price movement before making a decision to enter a trade.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Global Market Opening: Investors will watch the global financial market’s start to the week, which could influence gold demand.
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (January 20): Improved figures may reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while weaker-than-expected data could support gold prices.
• Eurozone & U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMI (January 21): Strong U.S. PMI data may support the dollar and pressure gold prices. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PMI figures may boost gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (January 22): Better-than-expected data may indicate a recovery in the Eurozone economy, potentially putting downward pressure on gold.
• Japan CPI (January 22): This data could affect the yen and influence gold demand in the Asian market.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (January 23): Lower-than-expected claims may strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices.
• U.S. Bond Yield Movements (January 23): If U.S. bond yields rise, gold’s attractiveness could be reduced.
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (January 24): Stronger-than-expected figures may support the dollar and weigh on gold prices.
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (January 24): Better-than-expected data may reflect confidence in the U.S. economy and negatively affect gold prices.

Technical Analysis

The price has been steadily rising and is now testing a key resistance level at 2730, which is a major resistance. It is important to closely monitor the price direction, as there may be a possibility of the price entering a sideways range within a larger box.

If you wish to trade on the Buy side, consider waiting for the price to break through the 2730 resistance. You should place a short Stop Loss on a smaller timeframe, with a range of 500-1000 points to manage risk safely. Alternatively, if you’re interested in trading on the Sell side, you can set a Stop Loss above the 2730 resistance, in the 2735-2740 range, to protect against losses in case the price breaks upward. Then, wait for a significant pullback.

It is recommended to observe the price movement pattern clearly before deciding to enter a trade in order to reduce risk and increase the chances of making a profit.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.