Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 18 – 22 November 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the fourth week of November, from 18 – 22 November 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) (November 18): Germany’s PPI, as the largest economy in Europe, reflects inflation trends. If the number is higher than expected, it could support the euro, indicating economic strength in Germany. However, if it is lower than expected, it may put pressure on the euro to weaken.
• Germany and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November 19): If the investor sentiment index is higher than expected, it could support the euro. Conversely, if it is lower than expected, it may weaken the euro against the dollar.
• Eurozone EU Industrial Sales Index (November 22): If industrial sales exceed expectations, it will likely strengthen the euro. However, if the numbers are lower than expected, the euro could weaken.

U.S. Economic Data:

• US Housing Starts (November 19): These figures reflect the condition of the US real estate sector. If the data is better than expected, it could support the US dollar and strengthen it.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (November 20): This report provides insights into economic trends and the direction of interest rates. If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance, it could strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on the euro. However, if the report expresses concerns about the economy, the dollar may weaken.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (November 21): A lower-than-expected number of jobless claims would reflect a strong labor market and could put pressure on the euro due to a stronger US dollar. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims may support the euro.
• US & EU Preliminary PMI (November 22): PMI figures indicate economic direction. If the European PMI is higher than the US PMI, it could support the euro. However, if the US PMI points to stronger economic growth, the US dollar may strengthen.

Technical Analysis

The price is currently consolidating around the 1.05000 support level and has not yet broken below it. It is recommended to wait for confirmation from Price Action to determine the direction before making a decision. If the price bounces upward, consider buying in line with the trend. However, if the price breaks below this level, you can follow the downtrend and consider selling.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• UK Producer Price Index (PPI) (November 18): The PPI reflects inflation trends in production costs. If the data comes out higher than expected, it could support the British pound as it may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish stance. Conversely, if the data is lower than expected, it could put downward pressure on the pound.
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index (November 21): If consumer confidence exceeds expectations, it reflects optimism in the UK economy and could strengthen the British pound.
• UK Retail Sales (November 22): Strong retail sales could bolster the pound, while weaker-than-expected data may exert downward pressure on the currency.
• UK & US Preliminary PMI (November 22): PMI figures gauge economic activity. If the UK PMI is stronger than the US PMI, it may support the pound. However, if the US PMI is stronger, it could boost the US dollar.

U.S. Economic Data:

• US Housing Starts (November 19): Better-than-expected data may indicate a strong US economy, potentially strengthening the US dollar against the British pound.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (November 20): If the Fed signals further rate hikes, the dollar could strengthen, applying downward pressure on the pound. If the Fed expresses economic concerns, the dollar may weaken.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (November 21): Lower-than-expected claims may support the US dollar, weakening the pound. Higher claims could provide support to the British pound.

European Economic Data Affecting GBP/USD:

• ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (EU) (November 19): If the sentiment index comes in higher than expected, it could strengthen the euro, potentially impacting the movement of the British pound, especially if the euro strengthens more than the pound against the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

The price is currently consolidating at the support level of 1.26000, but the direction is not yet confirmed. It is recommended to wait for further price movement. If the price rebounds, consider following a Buy position. However, if the support is broken and the price continues lower, follow a Sell position in line with the downtrend. Trading with the main downtrend is likely to offer more profitable opportunities in the current period.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) (November 18): Although this is European data, it can indicate inflation trends in the Eurozone. If inflation in Germany is high, it could signal global economic uncertainty, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Germany & Eurozone) (November 18): This index reflects investor sentiment about the economy. If confidence drops, gold prices may boost as investors seek safe assets. However, if confidence rises, it could put downward pressure on gold.
• US Housing Starts (November 19): If housing data is strong, it may strengthen the US dollar, which would pressure gold prices. On the other hand, weak data could support gold.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (November 20): The minutes will give insight into the Fed’s stance on interest rates. If the Fed signals further rate hikes, gold could be pressured due to the higher opportunity costs of holding it. However, if the Fed expresses concerns about the economy, the dollar may weaken, which could support gold.
• US Initial Jobless Claims (November 21): This data reflects the health of the labor market. If jobless claims fall more than expected, the US dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on gold. If claims are higher than expected, gold could be supported.
• US Dollar Index (November 21): A stronger dollar will pressure gold, which is priced in dollars, causing gold prices to fall. Conversely, a weaker dollar may cause gold prices to rise.
• UK & US Preliminary PMI (November 22): PMI data reflects economic activity in each region. If the US PMI is stronger than Europe’s, it may strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on gold. However, if the European PMI is stronger, the dollar may weaken, which would be bullish for gold.

Technical Analysis

The price has tested the support at 2550 and is now starting to move up slightly, which could lead the price to test the resistance at 2600. If it fails to break through this resistance, the price may reverse and continue to move down. Therefore, it would be wise to observe the price action at this resistance level before deciding to Sell in line with the short-term downtrend, as there is still an opportunity to profit if the price indeed starts to drop.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.