Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 17 – 21 February 2025

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the third week of February, from 17 – 21 February 2025.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February 17): If the number comes out higher than expected, it may increase the chances of the ECB maintaining high interest rates, which could be bullish for the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If the number is lower than expected, it may pressure the ECB to ease monetary policy, which would be bearish for the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (February 18): If the number is higher, it indicates improved confidence in the German economy, which could support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If the number is lower, it may reflect economic concerns and put pressure on the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).
• Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI (February 21): If the number is higher than expected, it may support the euro (Bullish EUR/USD). If the number is lower than expected, it may reflect a slowdown in the Eurozone economy, which could put pressure on the euro (Bearish EUR/USD).

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Market Holiday (President’s Day) (February 17): The U.S. market will be closed, which could reduce market liquidity, and EUR/USD movements may experience lower volatility.
• U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) (February 19): A high reading may signal that inflation in the U.S. remains elevated, potentially pressuring the Fed to keep interest rates high, which is bearish for EUR/USD and bullish for the dollar. If the reading is lower, it may prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy, which could be positive for the euro (Bullish EUR/USD).
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 20): A decrease in claims reflects a strong labor market, potentially supporting the dollar and putting pressure on EUR/USD. An increase in claims may signal a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, which could be positive for the euro (Bullish EUR/USD).
• U.S. Existing Home Sales (February 21): A strong reading may indicate a robust economy, supporting the dollar (Bearish EUR/USD). A weak reading may raise concerns about a potential economic slowdown, which could be bullish for the euro (Bullish EUR/USD).

Technical Analysis

The price is currently testing a new resistance at 1.05100. For safety, it’s recommended to wait for the price to pull back and test the previous breakout level at 1.04200 before considering a Buy position. If the price drops below this level, it may be necessary to consider cutting the loss, as the trend is still within a large sideways range at the moment.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• U.K. Labour Market Report (February 18): If the unemployment rate decreases, it could be a positive factor for GBP (Bullish GBP/USD). Conversely, if the unemployment rate increases, it could signal negative pressure on GBP (Bearish GBP/USD).
• U.K. Average Earnings Index (February 18): Strong wage growth may increase inflationary pressure and raise the chances of the Bank of England maintaining high interest rates (Bullish GBP/USD). On the other hand, if wage growth slows down, it may signal negative pressure on GBP (Bearish GBP/USD).
• U.K. CPI (February 19): If inflation is higher than expected, it could be a positive factor for GBP as it may increase the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining high interest rates (Bullish GBP/USD). If inflation decreases, it could lead to a weaker GBP (Bearish GBP/USD).
• U.K. Manufacturing & Services PMI (February 21): If the numbers come in strong, it would indicate a robust business sector and may support GBP (Bullish GBP/USD). If the numbers are weak, it could reflect an economic slowdown in the U.K. and be negative for GBP (Bearish GBP/USD).

U.S. Economic Data:

• U.S. Market Holiday (President’s Day) (February 17): The U.S. market will be closed, which may result in lower volatility for GBP/USD during U.S. trading hours.
• U.S. PPI (February 19): A high PPI reading could signal persistent inflation in the U.S., potentially supporting the U.S. dollar (Bearish GBP/USD). Conversely, a lower PPI reading could provide support for GBP/USD (Bullish GBP/USD).
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 20): If the number comes in lower than expected, it could indicate a strong labor market, which would be positive for the U.S. dollar (Bearish GBP/USD). If the number is higher than expected, it could raise concerns about the economy and be positive for GBP (Bullish GBP/USD).
• U.S. Existing Home Sales (February 21): Strong sales data could reflect improving economic conditions in the U.S., supporting the U.S. dollar (Bearish GBP/USD). Weaker data could raise concerns about the economy and be positive for GBP (Bullish GBP/USD).

Technical Analysis

The price has broken through the resistance level. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to test the 1.25500 level and observe if the price can hold above this zone before considering opening a Buy position, with the expectation that the price will test the next resistance at 1.27000. However, caution is advised, as the price could potentially reverse and follow the larger downtrend.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

Economic Data Related to Gold:

• U.S. Market Holiday (President’s Day) (February 17): The U.S. market will be closed, which could result in lower trading volumes and reduced volatility in gold prices.
• Eurozone CPI (February 17): If inflation in the Eurozone increases, it may add pressure on the ECB to keep interest rates high, which could be a bearish factor for gold (Bearish XAU/USD).
• U.K. Labour Market Report (February 18): If the U.K. labor market is strong, the BoE may maintain a tight monetary policy, which could be bearish for gold (Bearish XAU/USD). However, if unemployment rises, it could increase economic concerns and support gold (Bullish XAU/USD).
• U.S. PPI (February 19): If the PPI comes in higher than expected, it may indicate that inflation remains high, potentially increasing the likelihood that the Fed will keep rates higher (Bearish XAU/USD). If the PPI decreases, it may raise expectations that the Fed will cut rates sooner, which could be bullish for gold (Bullish XAU/USD).
• U.K. CPI (February 19): If inflation in the U.K. remains high, it may add pressure on the BoE to maintain high interest rates, which could be bearish for gold (Bearish XAU/USD).
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (February 20): If jobless claims are lower than expected, it could signal a strong labor market, which would support the U.S. dollar and pressure gold prices (Bearish XAU/USD). Higher-than-expected claims may signal economic concerns and support gold (Bullish XAU/USD).
• U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMI (February 21): If PMI numbers are high, it would indicate a strong economy, which could be bearish for gold (Bearish XAU/USD). If the numbers are low, it could suggest a slowdown in the U.S. economy and be bullish for gold (Bullish XAU/USD).
• U.S. Existing Home Sales (February 21): If home sales are strong, it could reflect a robust economy and may put downward pressure on gold prices (Bearish XAU/USD). Weak sales could raise concerns about the economy and be a bullish factor for gold (Bullish XAU/USD).

Technical Analysis

The price has formed a Double Top around the 2950 zone and has dropped sharply. You can consider looking for a Buy entry at the support level of 2850 if the price reaches this level and shows Buy Price Action. However, caution is needed as there could be a sharp drop if the price falls below 2840. Since the price has risen significantly, it’s important to trade gold with extra caution during this period.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.