Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 24 – 28 June 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the fourth week of June, from June 24-28, 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• ECB President Christine Lagarde’s Speech: Any statements regarding monetary policy or economic outlook could impact the euro.
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence Data: This can indicate the economic health of the region and affect the euro.
• Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index: As Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, this index significantly influences the euro by providing insights into business confidence.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech: Any comments on interest rates or economic conditions could affect the US dollar.
• US Durable Goods Orders: This is a key indicator of manufacturing health and overall economic strength.
• US GDP Data: This is a crucial measure of economic health and growth, significantly impacting the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

In the latest daily timeframe candlestick, the price has tested the support level at 1.06687 twice. This indicates strong support at this level.

Overall, the bias is still towards selling. One could look for sell opportunities aiming for the price to break through the recent support level, with a target (TP 1) at 1.06505 with a risk-reward ratio (RR) of 1:1.5. Alternatively, if the price continues to decline, TP 2 could be set at 1.06045 with an RR of 1:3.

However, it is essential to monitor the market’s actual opening price and consider various economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US. If the price moves up and hits the stop-loss (SL) at 1.07201, it would be wise to wait for a new opportunity. (Looking at the daily timeframe chart, you can see the wicks have tested the support twice and bounced back, forming a Double Bottom pattern.)

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Announcement: This is a key indicator of inflation. An increase in CPI could lead to the Bank of England (BoE) being more likely to raise interest rates, which would positively impact the pound.
• Bank of England (BoE) Meeting: Decisions regarding interest rates and monetary policy statements can significantly affect the pound.
• International Trade Data: Changes in export and import figures can indicate the economic health of the UK.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech: Any comments on interest rates or economic conditions could impact the US dollar.
• US Durable Goods Orders: This is a key indicator of manufacturing health and overall economic strength.
• US GDP Data: This is a crucial measure of economic health and growth, significantly impacting the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

From the latest analysis, the current price has dipped below the Fibo 0.618 level (1.26455), indicating that the price may continue to decline to test the Fibo 0.5 level (1.25791) next.

You can place a sell order aiming for a 1:1.75 risk-reward ratio, with a target price (TP) of 1.25791. If the price retraces and hits the stop-loss (SL) at the current candle price of 1.26748, it would be prudent to pause and reassess the market situation before making further moves.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech: Any comments on interest rates or economic conditions could impact the US dollar and gold prices.
• US GDP Data: This is a crucial indicator of economic health and growth, significantly affecting the US dollar.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data: Strong employment figures typically strengthen the US dollar, which can pressure gold prices.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data: Higher-than-expected inflation data could lead to an increase in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets to preserve value.

Other Factors Impacting Gold Prices:

• Geopolitical Situations: Political events or global economic uncertainties often lead investors to hold gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Stock Market Volatility: High volatility in the stock market typically drives investors to turn to gold as a secure asset.

Technical Analysis

Last Friday, gold had a fake breakout above the trendline, as previously analyzed (the price broke out but then returned to the original trendline channel). Therefore, it is still possible to view a sell setup, targeting the next price zone around 2276.54.

Set the stop-loss (SL) at the high of the latest candle at 2358.44, aiming for a take-profit (TP) in the range of 2300-2276.54. However, it’s crucial to keep an eye on economic news releases, as they may cause significant price volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.