Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 2 – 6 September 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the first week of September, from 2 – 6 September 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• ECB Interest Rate Decision: Any announcements or signals from the ECB regarding interest rates or monetary policy will have a significant impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. If the ECB signals a more hawkish stance or reinforces a tightening approach, the euro may appreciate. Conversely, a dovish stance may lead to a depreciation of the euro.
• Economic Indicators: Key economic indicators from Europe, such as inflation data, GDP growth, and employment figures, play a role in shaping the ECB’s policy direction. Stronger-than-expected data can support the euro.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Scheduled for release on September 6, the NFP report is one of the most crucial indicators of the health of the U.S. economy. A strong report may bolster the USD, as it would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. Conversely, a weak report could put pressure on the USD.
• ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs: The ISM reports provide insights into the health of the U.S. economy. Better-than-expected results may support the USD, while disappointing data could lead to a weakening of the USD.

Technical Analysis

The price on the daily time frame (TF Day) is currently in an uptrend but is now retracing downward. It may move down to test the price zone of 1.09524-1.10193, where it will be important to see if this zone can act as a strong support level. 

You might want to wait for a bullish price action signal in this zone to potentially catch the price rebounding and moving upwards towards the next target zone around 1.12500.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• BoE Interest Rate Decision: If there is a meeting or announcement regarding monetary policy this week, expectations about the BoE’s interest rates will directly impact the GBP. If the BoE signals further rate hikes or adopts a more hawkish stance, it could support the strengthening of the GBP. Conversely, if the BoE shows a dovish stance or indicates no urgency in raising rates, the GBP may weaken.
• UK Economic Data: Key indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment figures will influence the BoE’s policy outlook. Strong economic data may support the GBP.

U.S. Economic Data:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): The NFP report, set to be released on September 6, is a key indicator of the U.S. economy. If the figures come in higher than expected, the USD could strengthen, which would put pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Conversely, if the numbers are lower than anticipated, the USD might weaken, leading to a potential strengthening of the GBP/USD pair.
• ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs: The ISM reports will provide insights into the U.S. economic status. If these reports exceed expectations, the USD may appreciate, while disappointing reports could cause the USD to weaken.

Technical Analysis

The price has currently retraced downward and is expected to possibly test a key price zone around 1.30768 before potentially moving back up. 

It might be wise to wait for the price to enter this zone and then look for a bullish price action signal, aiming for the price to rise and test the upper resistance zone around 1.33012 (Weekly SR).

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• Fed Interest Rate Expectations: The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has a significant impact on gold prices (XAU/USD). If the Fed signals additional rate hikes or adopts a hawkish stance, gold prices may decline, as higher interest rates reduce the appeal of gold, which does not yield any returns. Conversely, if the Fed adopts a dovish stance, gold prices may strengthen.
• Fed Officials’ Statements: Statements or comments from Fed officials regarding future monetary policy will be closely monitored. Any indication of monetary easing in their remarks could support higher gold prices.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): The NFP report, set to be released on September 6, is a key indicator that investors will be watching closely. If the figures are stronger than expected, the USD could strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, if the figures come in weaker than expected, the USD may weaken, leading to a rise in gold prices.
• ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs: The ISM reports, which reflect the state of the U.S. economy, could also influence gold prices. If the reports are strong, they could support the USD and pressure gold prices. However, if the reports are weaker than expected, gold prices may rise.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices have been moving within a large sideways range on the daily time frame (TF Day), between 2530 and 2484. Currently, the price has not chosen a clear direction, so trading within this range throughout the week is possible, taking both Buy and Sell positions based on the support and resistance zones. However, it is important to exercise caution with the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, September 6. This significant event could push the price to new all-time highs (ATH) or cause a sharp decline if the data strongly supports the USD.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.