Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 19 – 23 August 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the fourth week of August, from 19 – 23 August 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week:

European Economic Data:

• Flash PMIs (August 23): The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be crucial in assessing the health of the Eurozone’s manufacturing and services sectors. If the data is weaker than expected, it could negatively impact the EUR as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity.
• Germany’s GDP (August 21): As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany’s GDP data will provide insights into the overall economic performance of the region. If there is a contraction or weak growth, it could affect the EUR.
• Eurozone CPI (August 22): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will offer a view on inflationary pressures. If inflation is high, it may prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt more aggressive policies, which could support the EUR.

U.S. Economic Data:

• FOMC Meeting Minutes (August 21): The release of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be closely watched for clues about the future path of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. If there are indications of further rate increases, it could positively impact the USD.
• Existing Home Sales (August 22): This is a key indicator of economic health. If the data is stronger than expected, it could support the USD, as it reflects robust economic activity.
• Initial Jobless Claims (August 22): The weekly jobless claims data continues to provide insights into the health of the U.S. labor market. If the numbers decrease, it could support the USD, as it indicates a strong labor market.

Technical Analysis

The price on the Daily Time Frame (TF Day) has confirmed a Break of Structure, closing above the previous candle’s high, indicating a continuation pattern. It suggests that the price is likely to continue moving in the same direction.

You may consider entering a buy position if the price pulls back, aiming for a Take Profit (TP) around the Liquidity zone above, approximately at 1.10500. Alternatively, you can wait for the price to reach the Liquidity zone and then look for a clear Price Action confirmation before entering a trade.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD This Week:

U.K. Economic Data:

• UK CPI (August 21): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be a key indicator in assessing inflationary pressures in the UK. If inflation is higher than expected, the Bank of England (BoE) may consider raising interest rates, which could support the pound.
• Retail Sales Data (August 23): Retail sales data will reflect the strength of consumer spending in the UK. If the data is strong, it could positively impact the pound, as it indicates higher consumer confidence and improved economic health.
• Flash PMIs (August 23): The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will provide an overview of the health of the UK’s manufacturing and services sectors. Better-than-expected data could support the pound.

U.S. Economic Data:

• FOMC Meeting Minutes (August 21): The minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be closely watched for signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike trajectory. If there are indications of further rate hikes, the USD may strengthen.
• Existing Home Sales (August 22): The existing home sales data will serve as an indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. If the data is stronger than expected, the USD may receive support.
• Initial Jobless Claims (August 22): The weekly initial jobless claims data remains a key indicator reflecting the health of the U.S. labor market. If the numbers decrease, it could support the USD.

Technical Analysis

The price movement is similar to EURUSD, as there has been a Break of Structure on the Daily Time Frame (TF Day), confirming a continuation pattern.

You may wait for the price to retest the resistance zone at 1.30100 and observe the Price Action before trading in the direction of the price movement. Alternatively, if the price pulls back, you could consider entering a Buy position and aim for the upper TP zone.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Significant Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD This Week:

U.S. Economic Data:

• FOMC Meeting Minutes (August 21): The minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be crucial in assessing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike trajectory. If there are signals of additional rate hikes, it could lead to a stronger USD and put downward pressure on gold prices.
• Existing Home Sales (August 22): The existing home sales data will reflect the health of the U.S. economy. If the data is strong, it may positively impact the USD and exert pressure on gold prices.
• Initial Jobless Claims (August 22): The weekly initial jobless claims data will be a key indicator of the health of the labor market. If the data suggests a recovery in the labor market, it could strengthen the USD and put downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

The current price has reached an all-time high, and it’s evident on the Daily Time Frame (TF Day) that it has pulled back to retest the trend line before continuing upward.

You may consider waiting for the price to pull back and test the zone that recently broke out of the structure (around 2474-2485). If the price retraces to this level and shows a bullish Price Action signal, you could enter a buy order with the expectation that the price will continue to rise. However, be cautious of any news or factors during the week that could cause a sharp drop in gold prices.

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.